Cheer Goes Up for Suckers ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Cheer Goes Up for Suckers

Looks like all the suckers to be had for the moment for the most part are in...



Slowly bleeding shares for many days now, trapped titans of tyranny tap into more speculative spirits and pull in some vig increasing call option sales to a crowd it could defy in forty minutes flat with head spinning, wallet crushing effect, as May 6, 2010 demonstrated. I could see Neil Barofsky writing the book on that day's event.


Some perspective (via red dots) per the CBOE Put/Call Ratio.

The same per Elliott wave character suggests a third wave of a third wave up from early June should be behind us — namely, wave 3 of c, approaching completion of a 2nd wave of 5 waves down from this year's peak. Both relative strength (top panel) and momentum (bottom) support this view.

This would be a good time to restate the view that, if good things lie ahead, then why is momentum positive and this while volume shrinks no less(!)? Strong hands would be disguising good things ahead. Furthermore, there would be nowhere near the current degree of fearlessness as finds shares today increasingly held rather than sold.

All told, there is nothing to be but bearish, and principally parked in short-dated U.S. Treasuries for a period probably lasting longer than the rest of the month while we wait for European oligarchs to come back from vacation where, right now, dreams of how banking dictatorship shall proceed are bubbling over champagne.

Fast Money
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Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

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