Lookie Here! ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Monday, July 06, 2009

Lookie Here!

Oh Shemp, hunkering down is superior guidance ... but not because there's 9.5% unemployment, though. No!

Rather, it's because the Monetarist Monkey train left the tracks, oh, about a year and a half ago and volatile chemicals still burning (leverage), are set to explode and just flatten the world in which you dwell, pal.

Wake up and smell the El Swindle Grande. I could not possibly be more comfortable than I am right now ... short this market.

SPX 5-min

This is too good. You can almost physically see the battle raging following last Thursday's opening collapse.

This morning's downside follow-through came as no surprise at all. Following last week's turn for the worst, further selling, indeed, was to be expected, even despite the deep, sell-side extreme to which RSI reached at the open last Thursday (7.2.09).

Still, what did surprise today was, first, the day's opening gap lower, and then, the fact that, it took the entire day for this gap to be filled. Duly noted, too, is the substantial "re-balancing" of relative strength occurring by the end of the day. Thus the trend lower might resume at any moment.

Now, were there pent-up, underlying buying interest just hankering to get long[er] equities ... one would think recovery might have come much sooner than today's final hour.

Thus, one might conclude that, this market quite possibly could be as sick as last Thursday's throttling suggests. The deep, sell-side extreme RSI reached, indeed, might have been but an ominous warning ... and a serious one at that!

Why, just lookie here...

NYSE McClellan

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator — presently registering on the sell-side (i.e. below 0) — might best be seen as poised for a lot of downside momentum imminently developing.

You see the NYSE Composite, hitting its floor of the past couple months or so ... while the McClellan Oscillator — having "reset" following June's market decline — appearing set to prospectively register a heaping helping of pain over days straight ahead.

Why, this is as plain as my grandfather's nose! Trust me, that thing was HUGE. And you do know what they say, don't you?

Big nose...

Big nostrils.

And I smell big trouble ahead.

Just lookie here, will you...

NASDAQ McClellan

Weakening underlying momentum is in many ways revealing itself more plainly on the Pump and Dump than on the NYSE. Is this not quite as one would expect?

Does not NASDAQ consistently lead the way, no matter which direction "the stock market" trades? Indeed, there has been quite a record of this over many, many years.

And finally, lookie here...


Red alert, baby. Red alert...

Fast Money
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Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

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