No Hurry on That Uptick Rule, Mary! ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Monday, July 27, 2009

No Hurry on That Uptick Rule, Mary!

What to make of all the political theater? It matters, particularly with Team Busted turning lamer by the day ... as its endeavoring — pathetically promoted — drowns in an extremely restless and tumultuous sea of dissent.

First, some very useful backdrop...

In his first week in office FDR rescued the entire banking system. The Taller, Tanner, Herbert Hoover crew? Why in just six months time they've made permanent the ban on naked short selling. What progress! It's change we can believe in, huh.

Surely, the Financial Times of London backed the right man, because that uptick rule on short selling still is nowhere near being restored.
Investors and lawmakers have been clamoring for the SEC to put new brakes on trading moves they say worsened the market's downturn starting last fall. SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro has said she is making the issue a priority.

Yeah, right, a priority. If I were President, I would have two-and-a-half words for Ms. Mary Schapiro...

You're fired!

But I'm not President. Just a dumb box of rocks who happens to enjoy political theater, particularly the act where people in positions of great responsibility are doing their best "Frank Burns" for the benefit of the gifted mind that finds humor in unmistakable tragedy.

There's our Federal Reserve Chimp gettin' all cozy with the peeps (the poster children for that box of rocks I was speaking of) and then there's a John calling the Federal Reserve a "Ponzi scheme."

Ya think, Eliot?(!) And how do you suppose the Chinese feel about this? I'll bet they just get the warm fuzzies, and cannot help but be in the mood for more lecturing on the need to open up their financial markets, this coming from their bankrupt beneficiary.

(More evidence the play is a tragic comedy... I searched for a story to link to the word "lecturing," because I distinctly recall CNBC this morning reporting Treasury Secretary Geithner scoring the Chinese on the need to open their financial markets. Yet all I found was a story reporting, "No side is demanding too much," quoting a Chinese authority. Was CNBC, then, simply going to bat for its globalization junkie mother ship, presently strung out on a boat load of CMBS?)

This is some serious dope, folks. See through the smoke. As soon as the Chinese figure out how we got so madly insane without the help of opium, Ben's hyperinflation bluff could be brazenly called with an angry torrent of Treasury sales on the open market. After all, what card carrying Communist can respect a thug-wannabe who struggles to extort loot from mom and pop in their old age?

And on this note, surely, I am not the only one wondering what Mike Milken was doing on Maria Bartiromo's box of pretty rocks panel, blessed by the President, pushing for health care "reform"... Was Milken there for dramatic effect? Sort of like Michael Corleone's body guard? Remember his fate in Havana? The "reform" effort has D.O.A. written all over it.

E` tu, stock market?


So, you see, in a bull market RSI can gradually push into solidly overbought territory ... whereas in a bear market rally, short squeeze style, RSI burdens under the weight. This could be a telling indication of how soon $SPX collapses.

Given the magnitude of the market's monster move off March bottom, best absolute RSI readings thus far are, shall we say, suspicious. In other words, where's the beef? This reeks something's not right.

If those mistakenly holding in the spirit of denial and complacency — those not offering shares for sale out of fear, and thereby laying the foundation of the wall of worry with increasing volume — likewise are not buying with some increased measure of intensity resembling the bullish "walk" that matches their "talk," which presently is spoken fearlessly holding long positions, then you might say we have us a three legged chair all ready for Potsy to sit on it. Happy Days. At least for a bear...

SPX weekly

A picture's worth a thousand words.

Hey Mary! No hurry on that uptick rule...

Fast Money
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