The Loon That Refreshes ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Wednesday, July 01, 2009

The Loon That Refreshes

The King of Stark, Raving Mad Has Spoken! Not much point in having a free press when personalities operating its levers possess the rationality of Daffy Duck.

Thanks, though, Dennis, for making me look so far ahead of the curve that, I might consider renaming this blog, "Back to the Future." Your citing the Golden Cross as proof the recession is over could not have been a more conclusive case-in-point as was made here Monday.

So, about that curve...

All the evidence suggests the market is very near top. Despite yesterday indicating that, top might not yet have been registered, tonight this possibility is seen not at all certain. There's just no denying building underlying technical weakness.

Granted, the trend over the past couple months has seen the market hold up despite this. Nevertheless, who would be Looney Tunes giving up UltraShort ETF positions when the market appears so close to top (if it has not done so already)?


Often during the formation of Elliott Wave second waves in a five-wave, impulse wave down, the market's internals will register better readings than occurred at top. This appears the case presently on the NYSE. The differential between new 52-week highs and lows is just about as positive now as it was early-June.

This condition is all the more evident on the Pump and Dump...


So, let's see what develops over the next few days before thinking about giving up positions that otherwise appear to be on the right side of the trade...

Fast Money
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© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

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