Bailing Out the Core Bailing In Victims Not Yet Slaughtered ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Friday, July 05, 2013

Bailing Out the Core Bailing In Victims Not Yet Slaughtered

As the U.S. dollar and crude oil both shoot higher, we will see just how fabulous is a steepening yield curve to banks whose customers only stand to be further squeezed sustaining the illusion today's still uber levered, money center banks are anything but hopelessly insolvent. Double trouble is this dire condition running right up to Confetti's Fed, whose balance sheet is in a race to the bottom with longer-dated bonds. Silence is not golden in panic into short-dated core credit securities, while those longer-dated are trimmed.

Growing instability throughout the Mediterranean is front and center now. Evidently, core currency support is being secured via manufactured runs squeezing but more victims of a still collapsing Ponzi scheme, while the British pound's conspicuous beating stands out like a sore thumb. Is there growing fear bail-in is about to go wild? Or is the pound simply riding the Muslim Brotherhood's coattails?

Noland nails this day's seeming trading anomaly to be sure. Global dollar suck brings equities a bid, not because a steepening yield curve is a positive, but rather that spreading panic still somehow seem rational and under control. Yet there still is no good technical reason to take the bait. Two weeks straight now the market's bounce appears setting up a still steeper turn away from May's peak. This message our favored technical tea leaves continue broadcasting.

Live mines on a sea of hot money certainly raise probability of increasing volatility. Seeing this in currencies and interest rates—both gigantic markets—certainly raises a similar danger here for lowly equities.

Word on the Street
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