Twice we see the typical bump in NYSE advancers versus decliners preceding formation of a bottom. The first coincided with the "b" wave of the market's initial a-b-c down from May peak. These three waves, completing late-June, are seen forming the "a" wave of a larger Elliott corrective wave unfolding since May peak. The "b" wave of this larger Elliott corrective wave is seen forming off late-June bottom and finds the second bump in NYSE advancers versus decliners coinciding. Likewise, the ultimate peak of this "b" wave is being marked by a negative divergence in NYSE advancers versus decliners.
So, no change in the forecast here calling for more foul weather in garbage land. This is seen coinciding with a "c" wave down continuing formation of an Elliott corrective wave off May peak.
We are well-advised here, too, recalling index momentum (MACD) at weekly intervals, first being extended into May peak, and now turning over. Likewise an extraordinarily extended S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index at May peak now negatively diverging as the S&P 500 challenges its May peak. These measures suggest the market remains at risk of sinking well below its late-June bottom as the Elliott corrective wave forming since May peak continues to unfold.
* * * * *© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.
Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.
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