Foul Weather Still Threatening ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Monday, July 15, 2013

Foul Weather Still Threatening

It appears the market's bounce from late-June bottom is nearing its completion, setting up a significant decline continuing formation of an Elliott corrective wave unfolding off the market's May peak...

Twice we see the typical bump in NYSE advancers versus decliners preceding formation of a bottom. The first coincided with the "b" wave of the market's initial a-b-c down from May peak. These three waves, completing late-June, are seen forming the "a" wave of a larger Elliott corrective wave unfolding since May peak. The "b" wave of this larger Elliott corrective wave is seen forming off late-June bottom and finds the second bump in NYSE advancers versus decliners coinciding. Likewise, the ultimate peak of this "b" wave is being marked by a negative divergence in NYSE advancers versus decliners.

So, no change in the forecast here calling for more foul weather in garbage land. This is seen coinciding with a "c" wave down continuing formation of an Elliott corrective wave off May peak.

We are well-advised here, too, recalling index momentum (MACD) at weekly intervals, first being extended into May peak, and now turning over. Likewise an extraordinarily extended S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index at May peak now negatively diverging as the S&P 500 challenges its May peak. These measures suggest the market remains at risk of sinking well below its late-June bottom as the Elliott corrective wave forming since May peak continues to unfold.

Word on the Street
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