Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Haircuts: The Other Way to Save the Euro


The key challenge right now facing the trans-Atlantic banking system is credit market dysfunction. Bailout "works" only to the extent entities being "saved" are but small, manageable parts of a larger whole whose core credit market capacities are not compromised as a result.

Thus the dilemma facing the euro-zone vis-a-vis Spain and Italy. The hoped for bailout of these nations most certainly threatens the EMU's core credit market, which is in Germany.

Whether by an ESM levered via a "bank license" or an ECB willfully choking down more insolvent paper, the attractiveness of German bonds is sure to diminish as a result, putting upward pressure on interest rates at the euro zone's core and likewise raising solvency issues for many a German debtor whose position right now is being accommodated by falling rates on German debt — a condition that simply cannot last, no matter what, if any, scheme our criminal Treasury Secretary worked out this week in Europe. (Geithner is being interviewed on Bloomberg tomorrow morning, so we might get a sense of any scam he ventured, or whether his mission more so was to gain a better sense of how much pain the Fuehrer will need to inflict in order to impose the next installment of swindle on the road to banking dictatorship.)

Apparently there is a lot of squealing coming from the euro-zone's fascist heavyweights in Brussels protesting a growing chorus in Germany calling for Greece's expulsion from the EMU. Yet further Greek debt write down such an action necessarily would entail, indeed, is the only hope for the euro's near-term survival. This, no doubt, also is true of debt of many other national origins. It is not possible for private investors not to take a significant loss. It simply is not possible. So, Merkel's "commitment to the euro" has terms. Greece has got to go, and if more have to follow, so be it for German commitment to the euro.

Yet is not consolidation also vital to dictatorship? We have a borderless one called "globalization." An imperial system, financially rooted, in grave peril no less, and voracious for valuable assets on the cheap. An historic American adversary is today vulnerable, and as ever shameless.

Summarizing recent political diatribes, in light of this moment's peril the chance to firmly anchor what good there is behind today's precarious mountain of garbage awaits Glass-Steagall, national banking, and more work than you can shake a stick at. Not jobs. Careers! Livelihoods! Purpose for God that we could organize so and purpose for country that mankind graced with profound freedom to culturally develop advancing classical humanist ideals finds leadership in this small world. Easily this, no less, simply asserting the will and impressing it on the American political scene now, wherever this might take you.

You take an important British faction backing Glass-Steagall and Germany more or less forcing the issue, and you arrive at time for Congress to step up. As in right now, before August recess step up and pass H.R. 1489 reinstating Glass-Steagall. Seize this moment for all history reaffirming the American Revolution. Leadership turned to sophist jellyfish means it's time for new leadership.

(My God! Clouseau will get to the bottom of the raft of crimes we are relentlessly confronted with sooner than these so-called "leaders.")





Fast Money
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© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


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Monday, July 30, 2012

Scalping the Rumor


Given the moment, today's best Put/Call Ratio since early-June bottom accompanied by a rising price for the pleasure (see $VIX) probably should be thought a demonstration of misplaced optimism exposed willing to be fleeced, this on account of hoped for central bank intervention otherwise proven over the past few years only to accelerate credit market distress and lead to inevitable challenge of the core of the trans-Atlantic banking system. Yes, this is fitting prelude to disaster. Supporting the probability are many other, technically grounded perspectives whose foundation resides in the Elliott Wave Principle.


$SPX

Without a pressing need to label the 1st and 2nd waves of 5 waves down from this year's peak, we still can consider every element of technical data above to verify that, a 3rd wave down hard is a very real possibility straight ahead.

First — big picture — momentum (bottom panel) no doubt confirms weakness indicative of a top from which the market could decline considerably. "Could" for the moment is well enough. So a 1st wave down from this year's peak and a 2nd wave [up] "correcting" this could be in our midst.

Supporting prospect a 2nd wave currently is forming are the absolute positions of both momentum, as well as relative strength (top panel). Both being positively biased is fitting character of an Elliott 2nd wave, wherein the positive dimensions of the market's advance preceding are flashed. To this add the present state of the 50-day moving average relative to the 200-day.

Now, this latter, moving average perspective might raise protest. How can this be supportive of a dire near-term outlook, such as a 3rd wave down portends?

If the positive absolute and relative states of the 50- and 200-day moving averages were indicative of underlying strength, then why are those behind it giving away their disposition, this by way of the likewise positive states of both momentum and relative strength? Indeed, this disposition is better kept hidden! Just go back to bottoms past. You will see what I mean. Misplaced conviction here, again, is harmonious character of an Elliott 2nd wave [of 5 waves down].

Volume is yet another clincher. Not only is no one seemingly awake to the danger ahead, but complacency is so thick that, notwithstanding the market having given back gains made over the first three months of this year on turnover suggesting stocks were falling of their own weight (on account of a deficit of buyers), its recovery since finds buying interest only the more diminished. Only the combination of added selling restraint and focus on a handful of darlings has bid up the market. As such, weak hands holding on with anticipation for increasing interest stand ready for disappointment as an Elliott 3rd wave down unfolds.

You will arrive at the same conclusion considering the market's advance off March '09 bottom in relation to its preceding decline, the bulk of which occurred in 2008. The very same technical measures as validate prospect a 1st and 2nd wave down from this year's peak is unfolding likewise validate prospect that, a larger 1st and 2nd wave down from October 2007 peak is unfolding. On a larger scale, too, then, is the market poised for imminent disaster. Levels last seen in the 1987-1994 period still remain very much on the radar.


SPX 15-min

Just how soon the market might begin its swoon to such "ungodly" depths is indicated above. Five waves up since last week are seen forming a "c" wave prospectively completing the 2nd wave that, as argued above, has been unfolding since early June. Seeing both the McClellan Oscillator and the NYSE Bullish Percent Index objectively indicate increasing underlying weakness developing coincident with prospective formation of wave c of 2, there is a good chance nasty could be at the door in a flash. (And if on account of a nuclear blast, well, who could doubt the possibility was made only the more real with a whole lot of money and power at grave risk of being swept away, as Glass-Steagall starkly threatens.)


Fast Money
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© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


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Saturday, July 28, 2012

Silence Is By No Means Golden


Following are a couple reports on a European debt crisis rapidly spiraling out of control. These should give you a better sense of a looming battle provoked by Team Fraud aiming to further a supra-national banking dictatorship whose purpose is to sustain the system of virtual slave labor camps otherwise called "globalization." Of course, this arrangement is meeting a formidable challenge with increasing calls for reinstatement of Glass-Steagall. Yet there is no guarantee reason will prevail. A weak U.S. Congress and a corrupt Executive, both sold out to an imperial system, are an impediment to just resolution of a crisis threatening the very foundation of the American Revolution. One thing certain is no matter which way the impending battle turns, many a wildly mis-priced "asset" will be marked down, if not obliterated. Thus, there is no good reason for any American to tuck tail and simply trust those in positions of power will do the right thing. Silence is by no means golden when so called "leaders" fail to fight for truth and justice while crime after crime disgraces our time with a blind eye turned upon a swindle of historic dimension that is the trans-Atlantic banking system.

First are excerpts from Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin of 7/27/2012 titled, "Monetary Madness." (Emphasis added is mine.)
Today, because they now lack creditworthiness in the marketplace, Spain and Italy no longer have the capacity to inject sufficient new Credit into their economic systems. This is a potentially devastating dynamic, as the lack of sufficient ongoing monetary inflation is illuminating deep structural economic impairment following years of Credit excess and attendant maladjustment.

Earlier this week, with Spanish and Italian yields spiking higher and their markets turning illiquid, the European debt crisis was again spiraling out of control – only months after the ECB implemented its latest $1.3 TN liquidity facilities. And, once again, acute financial stress has provoked tough talk. ECB president Draghi Thursday morning stated, “…the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro… Believe me, it will be enough.” German Finance Minister Schaeuble said he supported Draghi’s statement, while Chancellor Merkel and President Hollande came forward Friday with their own “bound by the deepest duty” to do everything to protect the euro. And then there was this afternoon’s unconfirmed report that Mr. Draghi is prepared to present a “game changing” multi-prong plan at next week’s European Central Bank governing council meeting that will include ECB bond purchases and a banking license for the ESM.

Shifting 180 degrees from earlier in the week, rather than fearing Credit collapse the markets moved quickly in anticipation of yet another crisis-induced bout of monetary inflation. And, seemingly, only the Bundesbank remains capable of taking a measured approach. Friday morning (before afternoon reports of a Draghi’s “game changer”), from a Bundesbank spokesperson: “There haven’t been any changes in our positions on bond purchases of the Eurosystem, bond purchases by the EFSF, or giving a banking license to the ESM… The Bundesbank has repeatedly expressed in the past that it views bond purchases critically because they blur the line between monetary and fiscal policy… The Bundesbank continues to view the SMP [securities market program] in a critical fashion. The mechanism of bond purchases is problematic because it sets the wrong incentives… A banking license for the bailout fund would factually mean state financing via the printing press and would be a fatal route, which therefore is prohibited by the EU treaty.”

No doubt about it, the Bundesbank is increasingly isolated. They are at odds with most European politicians and they are at odds with other central bankers. They are clearly not on the same page with Mr. Draghi. And no group of government officials anywhere more clearly appreciates myriad risks associated with monetary inflations. The German/“Austrian” view of economics just has a very different perspective, and it goes way beyond some fixation on Weimar hyperinflation. The focus is on how real wealth is created and how wealth is destroyed. Monetary inflations are powerfully destructive. And as a deepening European crisis applies incredible pressure on politicians throughout the region – certainly including Germany's Merkel and Schaeuble – I suspect the Bundesbank will hold its ground. They are both right on the analysis and have the support of the German people. They understand that the German economy cannot support the massive debt of the entire eurozone.



A report posted today at LPAC titled, "Collapse of Euro, Return of Peseta Discussed in Spain," only the more confirms Noland's suspicion that, the Bundesbank will not back down. (Again, emphasis added is mine.)
In recent days, Spanish media have been portraying scenarios of a collapsing euro, and of Spain then being forced to return to its old national currency, the peseta. Jose Luis Gomez, a leading columnist at the news daily El PaĆ­s, wrote yesterday in his blog that a total failure of the euro and a return to the peseta cannot be excluded.

Today, the media (including Spanish ones in Ibero-America) report about a brand new survey done by the research department of BBVA (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria), one of the biggest banks of Spain, investigating the total collapse of the euro, and the "return of each country to its original currency." Other big international banks active in Spain have done calculations as well, on a return of the peseta: Japan's Nomura believes the Spanish currency would depreciate against the euro by 35.5%; Switzerland's UBS, Citigroup, and the Dutch Rabobank expect depreciations in the range of 40 to 60%, during the reintroduction period of the peseta.

El Periodico del Aragon reported (07/22/12) under the headline "From the Euro to the Peseta?", that Kai Konrad, Chairman of the Council of Scientific Advisors to the German Ministry of Finance, told some 200 Spanish bankers and businessmen a week ago, that "we cannot guarantee that the Eurozone will be sustainable." Konrad, invited by the Aragon businessmen's association, ADEA, said that a break-up of the euro would be costly, but people overestimate what Germany, with its own debts, can do financially, and there will be no bailout of Spain like that of Greece or Ireland. Hence, El Periodico's headline.

This just shows that whereas leading politicians like German Chancellor Merkel, French President Hollande, and ECB President Draghi are still launching big propaganda for the "rescue of the euro," bankers and others are already preparing for the failure of the euro, and beginning to think about something else (some of them even warming up to the idea of bank separation now).



These two reports suggest further hyperinflationary bailout of the hopelessly insolvent trans-Atlantic banking system, rather than a slam dunk, fairly appears a long shot.

Our treasonous Treasury Secretary will be traveling to Europe next week to coax the Bundesbank's surrender. Yet with Geithner's credibility at an all time low on account of facilitating the LIBOR scandal, his European intrusion could prove fatal to the EMU. One should recall that, it was the U.S. Treasury Secretary who first proposed the ESM be made a "bad bank" with capacity to absorb $2 trillion of Europe's garbage — the so-called "Geithner Minimum." Given that Germany still is steadfastly resisting this fraud, what then could a criminal incompetent whose part in bankrupting Europe is no longer beyond suspicion possibly bring to the table other than resentment and rage?

As noted yesterday, one could reasonably conclude the Obama administration is in serious trouble judging by the Treasury Secretary's empty defense of Dodd-Frank in the face of financial fraud continuing unabated. Unlike Congress, though, German authorities are not captive to the American spin machine propping up a hopelessly insolvent banking system. So, a serious leadership challenge unlike anything he experienced this week before Congress could await the Treasury Secretary in Europe. Indeed, if Geithner was "deeply offended" by Barofsky's indictment of the Treasury Secretary's "leadership," Germany could make him apoplectic and send him off the deep end.

It seems Germany has little to lose maintaining its hardline stance in opposition to the insane hyperinflationary schemes Geithner endorses. Likewise, more than any other nation on the front line today, Germany at least appears willing to bite the bullet. Could the time for doing so be at hand? There is no denying the walls have been caving in with increasing ferocity over recent weeks on Team Fraud's boy at Treasury. This could be the week he and the swindle he was put in place to defend are buried in an avalanche.

* * * * *

© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


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Friday, July 27, 2012

Still Too Certain Competence Drives a New Third Reich


They say to every rule is an exception. They also say talk is cheap. These past two days are the exception to this latter rule. Talk has been dearly precious for a banking system stuffed to the gills with insolvent garbage. The "walk" following cheap talk streaming from trapped Europeans pledging support for their euro scrip, and this at all costs, lies in wait and is certain to be a killer.

Indeed, CNBC's Rick Santelli commenting on the Count's reckless banter yesterday really hit the nail on the head...




I always refer back to Alan Schwartz's appearance on CNBC two days before Bear Stearns was devoured by JP Morgan Chase in March 2008. The fact the firm's CEO was publicly swearing up and down that, all was well presented a huge red flag.

Ditto our present day's incompetent (fascist!) central bankers and treasury officials. Their backs against the wall scrambling to defend an indefensible arrangement long after the horses have bolted from the barn, all miserably fail the credibility test much the same as did Schwartz in '08. These, too, in all probability are equally poised to fall. Desperately feigning control over a hopeless situation the proverbial bell rung at a major turning point is sounded. That very few hear it is so Ecclesiastes.

Shrieking tools lend the more reason to believe, then, that garbage whose stench has been covered with claims impossible to back with any substantive action both stabilizing and lasting soon enough will be stinking to the high heavens.


SPX 15-min

It was the wrong kind of certainty, to be sure, on Friday, June 29, 2012 that last brought such a decided imbalance in conviction that, a bright future awaits securities at the bottom rung of the capital structure. Today's instance demonstrated a certainty whose religion is faith raised by European political marionettes piling on central bankers pledging to do all in their power to protect the euro. "All," that is, except insist on a credible debt restructuring, banking system reorganization (Glass-Steagall) and massive investment in physical economy to make up for disinvestment over the past forty years. Francois and Angela Schwartz instead expressed their willingness to allow Brussels (capital of the New Third Reich) to continue its role as puppet master of the silly fascist show where "political capital" invested in the EMU can be brandished like Damocles sword to satisfy the Fuehrer's demand the euro remain intact, that more lifeblood and property be stolen, er uh justly expropriated as price for profligacy.

Although it might have seemed everyone today was buying into Mr. and Mrs. Schwartz's power trip, a notable number of stocks apparently have seen their access to the trough right outside the rumor mill blocked over the past month (a story told by revenue shortfall a la hyperinflationary breakdown of the physical and financial economy)...


$NYHL

Now, the NYSE Composite Index did in fact trade today above its intra-day high of Friday, June 29th, as well as above higher highs reached on July 2nd and 3rd. Today's high also exceeded that reached on July 19th. So, seeing no expansion in joy on account of today's political approval of the Count's determination of yesterday that, the Reichsbank will do whatever it takes to save the euro, we have a market ripe for letdown by way of a hyperinflation sensitive Bundesbank remaining steadfast in its opposition to issuing the ESM a bank license.

Yet supra-national financial dictatorship requires this! Why else would Team Fraud's media keep putting lipstick on this pig? As we know from the 2008 experience, the Fuehrer is not averse to inflicting excruciating pain in order to secure the New Third Reich's objectives. The market's weakening internals over the recent period — this on top of the same over an extended period more or less since March '09 bottom — set up for circumstance aiming yet again to dutifully serve tyranny's perverse pleasure.

It's in the context of this not-so-far-fetched view of contemporary affairs throughout the trans-Atlantic that one really must gasp at the U.S. Treasury Secretary's performance this week in Congress. Having watched his appearance before the House Committee on Financial Services on Wednesday, an administration in deep trouble was evident. Not that anything exchanged during questioning revealed this. Rather, the many certain, sordid realities raised by some members of the committee have a way of positively smashing Tina's view of things, particularly in defense of Dodd-Frank.

Yet no serious challenge of his Swiss cheese-like edifice rationalizing this "reform" ever charged the air. Of course, this would require thinking like an American, rather than imperial putty. No doubt, Congress is a serious problem for increasing numbers of world citizens being reduced to cattle status. All the more so knowing the Fuehrer has made great strides amidst this state of affairs. The way remains paved, then, for more lifeblood and property to be stolen, er uh expropriated as price for our still unresolved, prior profligacy. A [bad] bank license granted the ESM in the process but icing the cake. Lord knows one treasonous Treasury Secretary will do nothing but lend his thoroughly corrupt blessing. And if he should be hung, then what about this one:




Fast Money
* * * * *

© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


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Thursday, July 26, 2012

Ode to Joy for a Happy Meal Toy


Hat tip Signor Panic, Count Draghi-ula, this week's prize winner for slickest grease applied to a rusting rumor mill. His tale of saving the euro "no matter what it takes" truly exposes the full suite of "resources" Europe in fact has available to solve its debt crisis, the likes of which Tina, Bernice and Windy have assured Americans will preclude any necessity of a U.S. bailout subsidy. In the search for treasure, the ECB's cheap talk today delivers but a McDonalds' Happy Meal toy. Enjoy it everyone, because once the meal's packaging is unwrapped, I guarantee what's inside will be infested with maggots.

So, bring it on Mario. We are all looking forward to Italy and France joining the euro funeral once today's debt short squeeze at the euro-zone's periphery fades and everyone and your momma wakes up to face reality that, bond income in 2012 currency will possess markedly diminished purchasing power in the immediate period following "whatever it takes to 'save' the euro."

The Count could even shock the world coordinating a euro debt write down (which in fact is the only action having any hope of saving the euro), or instead embark on some unprecedented hyperinflationary intervention stuffing the balance sheet of an already many times over insolvent ECB with but more wildly mis-priced garbage, and in so doing venture a double-digit depreciation of the euro's exchange rate value. Either way, criminal ratings agencies yet again will be shown hopelessly behind the curve. These cannot cut their European debt ratings fast and deep enough to keep up with "whatever it takes to save the euro" This much is virtually certain.


$NYA

There isn't much time left for a rumor mill to buy. Not with relative strength (top panel) and momentum (bottom) showing the NYSE in a late-March like state. One big ominous difference now, though, is that "death cross" earlier this month sinking the NYSE Composite's 50-day moving average below its 200-day moving average.

Remaining to be seen is whether shrieks of panic from trapped fascists at the ECB and Fed might serve to keep major indexes within respective ranges established since early-June bottom, this for some weeks going into September, say. Noteworthy at the present moment, though, is elevated volume registering at several turning points this year. Today's suggests the market's turn back down probably is but some mere hours away (if not minutes).


Fast Money
* * * * *

© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


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Wednesday, July 25, 2012

August 1971: Glass-Steagall Repeal in Principle


Let's get something straight. The hyperinflationary, imperial Ponzi scheme whose genesis in the trans-Atlantic banking system dates back to August 15, 1971 was intended to lead to the inevitable repeal of Glass-Steagall. Those who claim Glass-Steagall's 1999 repeal neither would have stopped Lehman's collapse nor arrested the AIG swindle, etc, etc, etc. ignore how major players moving through the Wall Street - Washington revolving door these past forty years found it far easier (and lucrative) to support whatever policy would continue inflating this Ponzi scheme called a banking system, rather than act decisively to put an end to it.

Step by step, mis-priced risk relentlessly was accumulated over the decades since 1971, this even while Glass-Steagall technically remained "law," thus trapping the banking system in a Ponzi dynamic functioning to sustain each aged form of financial innovation (a.k.a. unsustainable swindle) with ever more elaborate permutations of the same. This simply had to be, lest the entire Ponzi scheme collapse.

Today's trapped lenders of last resort have been hooked these past few years for the same sake of sustaining this, a fraud-rife, debt-saturated Ponzi scheme otherwise ripe for destruction. Trouble is this task is becoming particularly problematic for a Team Fraud whose present effort reveals something more sinister afoot: an elaborate subversion of the American Revolution. Simply consider how every blessed principle laid forth in the U.S. Constitution's Preamble today appears badly compromised at the alter of a "free market" turned Bonnie and Clyde. No leap of faith is required here. Subversion of the very purpose for which the United States of America was formed more than amply is laid bare.

Again, Glass-Steagall's repeal in principle dates back to 1971 when the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates was trashed, rather than 1999 with passage of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act. A globalization scam decimating the wealth of nations (most emphatically the United States', formerly the world's largest creditor turned the world's largest debtor nation) began in earnest at that earlier date. Over the interim since 1971 a system of virtual concentration camps has been erected, this effectively enforced through creation of a mountain of unpayable debt whose presence now threatens to pit one camp against another: an end even the likes of Harvard professor Martin Feldstein foresaw prior to initiation of a euro project whose not-so-secret present purpose evidently aims to further consolidate control over a marginalized labor force reduced to cattle status in a modern-day form of imperialism whose policies and practices appear cloned from Nazism, while at the same time possessing no loyalty to any culture existing within a centuries-old system of sovereign nation states.

Those insisting today's imperial monstrosity is legitimate and unjustly threatened by calls for a return to Glass-Steagall but begs this one serious response: a modern-day Pecora Commission. This way, if nothing else, we can each decide for ourselves whose truth is most harmonious with the Laws of Nature wherein all men are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, among which are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.

Most commentators expounding views on contemporary "capitalism" — a misnomer if ever there was one, as what we are dealing with today rather is an imperial debt trap — tow a well worn disdain for government. In these parts, however, is respect for principles underlying a constitutional republic whose delegated powers have in decisive moments past given rise to expressions of an American System of Political Economy whose effect has cultivated a magnificent bounty lending a good name to "capitalism." This would not have been possible without right honorable defense of the American Revolution's sweetest fruit: the U.S. Constitution — the one and only enterprise in the United States rightly regarded "too big to fail."

Now, let's not suppose today's excitement on CNBC (slash consternation slash weeping and gnashing of teeth) surrounding former Citigroup chief Sandy Weill's call for Glass-Steagall during his appearance on "Squawk Box" this morning (see below) at all sidetracks urgent necessity to get Geithner O-U-T of Treasury, this on account of hyperinflationary breakdown currently slated to explode in a Wiemar Germany-like episode of unimaginable deprivation and chaos, the likes of which those backing the Treasury Secretary venture for the sake of destroying national sovereignty the world over, that a fascist bankers' dictatorship might then prevail in some fashion even more enslaving than is its current manifestation built up since the treasonous miscreants George Schultz and Paul Volcker guided Nixon to commit national suicide back in August 1971. So, being ever suspicious of Team Fraud's tactics, I am looking forward to watching today's House Financial Services Committee hearing entitled, "The Annual Report of the Financial Stability Oversight Council" before which appeared the U.S. Treasury Secretary. There wasn't much coverage given this on CNBC. According to Eamon Javers Geithner's role in the LIBOR scandal while New York Fed President became a focus when he was asked why no mention of fraud he knew of was made when he appeared before Congress a couple years back during proceedings deliberating the Dodd-Frank whitewash. Representative Scott Garrett (R-NJ) was particularly critical of Geithner on this account. This exchange Business Insider likewise found noteworthy. Let's reserve judgment until after watching the entire hearing.

Of particular interest is whether today's Weill revelation is related to the very fact the LIBOR scandal has seen the light of day at all, as well as the Financial Times' July 3rd bombshell likewise calling for Glass-Steagall. To whit was the issue forced upon CNBC in a surprise attack aiming to result in John Wilkes Booth's firing from the network, this on the very day a fraud facilitating Treasury Secretary was to appear before Congress? I strongly suspect this could be the case. Plainly, Glass-Steagall is not going away.

Not that Team Fraud's rumor mill is seized the least bit by this, as today's mother of all oh please, oh please, oh please God, please give the ESM a bank license — this so garbage already leveraged to the teeth can stink to the high heavens — gave legs to hyperinflationary hope that, the current game of make believe can proceed with yet another wink and a smile and God knows how many millions swindled taking to the streets in dissent over being sacrificed to a hopelessly insolvent albatross. We already have been over this non-starter: Europe still will remain very dead even if this bailout junkie pipe dream (i.e. an ESM made a "bad bank") somehow comes to be.

Let's wrap this up with Sandy Weill's "Squawk Box" remarks today, and look forward to a weak U.S. Senate doing its part to grease a rusting rumor mill when Geithner appears before the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow.







Fast Money
* * * * *

© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


There's an easy way to boost your investment discipline...

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Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Straight Out of Loony Tunes


In case you missed CNBC's "Fast Money" tonight, let me save you a lot of time with this 7 second summary...




What is so difficult about simple math? A Wall Street Journal report ten minutes before today's close greasing a rusting rumor mill with "Fed to the rescue!," this long after the Treasury market had closed, lending a knee jerk to satisfy the "hooked on fraud" crowd, and no one stops to think, "My god, the market is on the verge of spectacularly collapsing!"

Why wait so long to feed the rumor mill, and why not just delay the happy news until after the stock market closed? That's all you have to ask. I am not alone perceiving grave risk to the trans-Atlantic banking system's core whose many tens of trillions are the U.S. Treasury's liability. Bernice is well advised to stay away from helicopters. Too much poetic justice at stake. Allow me to translate: the Fed is trapped and its only course forward now is crash and burn.

Woefully few get it, and this notwithstanding rapidly growing evidence everywhere you look suggesting there isn't a bazooka big enough to satisfy the insolvent pig's voracious appetite for capital. Team Fraud facilitators faked solvency for as long as the economics department at Princeton could accommodate with their cauldron of sophistry seasoned to taste with mathematics straight out of Loony Tunes. We're but left at this perilous moment to chalk up yet another crazy thing in common with Nazism in a nation subverted by many vile flavors of evil.

Now is the hour when even core securities become garbage. These must be sold to make up for Bernice's shortfall. Of course, nut bags are raring to blame Count Draghi-ula, but the truth is these imperial ornaments on both sides of the Atlantic have outlived their usefulness. At this point the likes can only accelerate the banking system's spiral into the abyss, with liquidity and [necessary] asset sales becoming locked in a negative feedback loop. Welcome to Wiemar Germany, summer 1923, and remember, the climax of it came in November.

Just how critical it is right now to force Geithner out should be clear. He will be appearing in Congress tomorrow and Thursday. Softball dialog from jellyfish, like that afforded Bernice last week, must not be tolerated. Scorn like that heaped during the 2008 TARP vote is needed, imploring lunatic, spineless wonders in both the House and especially the Senate to fear the junkyard dogs their constituents have become as a consequence of Tina's accommodation of criminal fraud. Enough is enough, and if we are going to avoid Wiemar Germany's chaos, big heads must roll now before the insane matter within them is allowed to inflict damage never to be recovered in our lifetimes, if ever.

My God, I am overcome with acute fear over what is in store should a Great Political Shift not occur NOW. Deprivation like never before seen by any living American is a virtual certainty. The drought hitting the U.S. grain belt could not have come at a worse time. The thing to be stockpiling right now is not gold. Instead it is food. Sounds crazy, I know. Yet hyperinflationary breakdown brings devastation wrought with collapse in supply of every conceivable thing, and this is set to climax over months ahead should insane fascists who have infiltrated positions of authority remain in power. I kid you not, either these go, or we quite literally will die.

Even if you think me the loony tune here, there is nothing to lose taking my advice. Stockpile food — a year's supply is advised — because there is a good chance that, come next summer you will profusely thank me for saving your life.




Fast Money
* * * * *

© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


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Monday, July 23, 2012

Into the Bailout Buzz Saw


It looks like a fix might be in, at least to the effect of possibly greasing a rusting rumor mill over coming days. First clue was Spain's stock market holding up today better than the rest in Europe. Was this possibly the result of an anticipated bailout confirmed by way of Banco Santander finishing positive on the day (notwithstanding falling to a new low for the year, intra-day)?

"But investors are increasingly concerned that Europe's fourth-largest economy, like Greece, Ireland and Portugal before it, will have to ask international lenders for a full rescue.

"'What began as a Spanish banking bailout looks to be moving rather quickly towards a possible sovereign bailout,' said Jeremy Stretch, a currency strategist at CIBC." (What Happened in Europe That Spooked MarketsReuters, 7/23/2012)

Here's what Art Cashen and Bob Pisani had to say...




Oh yeah, that rumor mill is a rusting consensus of belief in a tired message! Ah ... tomorrow is another day. Maybe Mario Draghi can be trotted out yet again to talk up "political capital" invested in the EMU. Although Cashen rightly notes this capital's rapidly depreciating "street value," we can look forward to the IMF reporting Greece still has a pulse and more blood to drain.


$SPX

By all indications the corrective wave forming since early June could continue developing. Both the S&P 500's relative strength (top panel) and momentum (bottom) remain in position for a positive response to increased clamoring for more bailout likely coming to your favorite, captive financial media outlet as a result of growing acknowledgement of the threat of the EMU's demise.

Not that this still "constructive" technical configuration is any guarantee the lug nuts will not fall off tomorrow. However, today's money suck to the trans-Atlantic's core bringing a record low yield to the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note and unwanted dollar strength suggests it might not yet be time for calamity. Indeed, this appears the consensus view, today's hedge-worthy trouble notwithstanding...


$CPC

As I said at the start, it appears the fix is in. So, not only could the rumor mill receive a heaping smattering of grease in a chorus squealing for more bailout, but also from playing up the sentiment card showing vested interests more than willing to hang in there.

To the right was today's Yahoo! Finance CNBC poll. Longer-term we really get a sense of just how oblivious is the average investor to extraordinary risk that, "The Rage in Spain Calls Mainly for Dollar Pain." Apparently, there is considerable belief in the efficacy and likelihood of yet more bailout. So, as long as interest rates at the trans-Atlantic banking system's core do not blow out in a fitful scramble for capital, then there is reason to believe Tina and Bernice will remain hope among a solid majority anticipating the banking system's salvation in schemes already amply proven nothing but a swindle. In case you had not heard 60% of companies reporting their 2nd quarter earnings have fallen short of their consensus revenue estimates — yet more hyperinflationary breakdown confirmed.

Probably the most interesting takeaway from this poll is that, only 4% indicate an interest in buying commodities, this at a time when a record drought is hitting the nation's food supply. Jim Rogers probably is licking his chops!






Fast Money
* * * * *

© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


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Friday, July 20, 2012

The Rage in Spain Calls Mainly for Dollar Pain


With upward of $4 trillion of European debt still needing to be rolled over this year, as well as untold trillions currently marked to fantasy on bank books, is it any wonder the $125 billion thrown at the Spanish banking system a mere couple weeks ago has proven to no effect? Yields on Spanish debt, as well as credit default swap prices are surging again, and this necessarily means decimation of core securities at the heart of the trans-Atlantic banking system is but closer to becoming reality.

Bailouts demanding commensurate political and social suicide are a failing game. This fact is confirmed by the estimated one million Spaniards taking to the streets on Thursday in dissent over having their livelihoods sacrificed to unrepentant, swindling fascists whose fraud now is widely known to reach the core of the trans-Atlantic banking system (LIBOR). All the more must the rage of innocent victims be fed by a neo-Nazism blessed by captive "regulators" turning a blind eye even to the laundering of drug money financing terrorism the world over. A snowball in Haiti has a better chance than any of the schemes still being pumped by Team Fraud to "save" their hopelessly insolvent banking system.

Therefore, voracious capital needs that, absent debt write down, can only increase will necessarily be met with asset sales moving straight to the trans-Atlantic banking system's core — the U.S. Treasury. Ever hooked on fraud, though, there is every reason to believe the status quo swindle of the past few years (bailout and austerity) still will be relentlessly pursued over the coming period. Yet as is already vividly true in Europe, this will only more so come up short of what is needed to fill the trans-Atlantic banking system's gaping hole (thus exposing the full breadth of incompetence of today's regulatory apologists for a failed financial system).

Speaking of criminal incompetents, the policy cross-dresser unqualified even to be bacteria on Alexander Hamilton's decomposed ass — Tina Geithner — probably is as equally well-advised to watch his back as is his boss. Next week's scheduled appearance before Congress regarding LIBOR (this while President of the New York Fed) and velvet glove oversight of the OCC (while Treasury Secretary) might need be postponed on account of a funeral. Truth is American citizens denied due process and wacked for the purpose of boosting the president's approval rating has precedent, so it might be time for one corrupt regulatory albatross to go. Then again, Tina has been around the block and could instead follow London and abandon ship.


$USD

They say there are many ways to skin a cat. No doubt problematic for bailout junkies is a rising dollar. One fraud friendly Treasury Secretary removed from the scene just might solve the problem. What little juice is left to swindle innocent millions on both sides of the Atlantic could be squeezed, then, with the dollar sent into a tailspin and interest rates on dollar-denominated debt launched into the stratosphere. It goes without repeating, but for a laugh I will, this will be the moment we can wave bye bye to Pooperman, too. And let's not forget Laz, among many, many other deluded souls trapped in analytical empiricism finding the present moment even remotely comparable to any other post-WWII period, which never-spoken, yet truthful perspective likewise relegates this week's notably low 22.2% bullish among those polled by the American Association of Individual Investors the perfect ruse, if not vivid demonstration of what little capacity exists to squeeze the trans-Atlantic's citizenry and escape Spain's rage.


Fast Money
* * * * *

© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


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Thursday, July 19, 2012

Barack Obama, Meet Neville Chamberlain


Lauren Lyster's interview today with Charles Ferguson (producer of the documentary "Inside Job") continues shedding light on the only path forward for a trans-Atlantic banking system caught in the eye of a financial hurricane whose most destructive edge lies immediately before us. During these final hours in the "calm before the storm" Wall Street will either willingly submit to a modern-day Pecora Commission prosecution, along with a game changing restructuring via Glass-Steagall, or, resisting this, likely both precipitate, as well as face a self-imposed bloodbath.

Benefactors of death-dealing Nazis will not die easily it seems, as escalating intrigues in the Middle East in general, and Syria in particular, reveal the fuller measure of criminality these will engage to sustain their power — all following on a myriad of financial crimes occurring unabated, directly facilitated through a bailout policy animating the crown jewels of an imperial system presenting the modern day face of tyranny, the likes of which once inspired the American Revolution, and now its reawakening. Exposed is but desperation presenting further proof that, every single institution captive to a system at whose core are "too big to fail" titans of tyranny is trapped. Possessing no more tricks which to feign the viability of a mountain of unpayable debt at the core of this imperial system called "globalization," death-dealing Nazis position their most pathetic, corrupt tools to fill the void (yes, Senators McCain and Lieberman, yes, Secretary of State Clinton, yes, President Obama, you). Here finds both the U.S. and U.K. aligned with al Qaeda in Syria, only raising sight among the sane of a new Nuremberg Tribunal on the horizon.

Our situation here is not unlike that in Great Britain leading up to World War II. On a certain level of comparison one might consider Barack Obama today's Neville Chamberlain whose sweeping from power becomes necessary in the face of irrefutable evidence the present day's Nazi menace is no more trustworthy, nor better appeased. As such, certain aristocratic elements in London understanding what horrors are at stake have begun to counter today's Nazi threat, first with exposure of Barclays' leading role in the LIBOR scandal, and then quickly following with the FT's July 3rd call for Glass-Steagall. The knockout punch awaits but a frontal assault on the U.S. Treasury — the ultimate guarantor of the hopelessly insolvent trans-Atlantic banking system — and this attack cannot be far off.


$SPX weekly

Duly noted technical similarity to July 2011 meets an extraordinarily dangerous fundamental backdrop whose impact on confidence surely has been reflected by the diminishing volume of shares exchanged over the past year. Plainly, the marketplace desiring to bid up garbage is thinning. Little wonder in a world of trapped central banks and treasuries, paralleled with pathetic Nazi-appeasing wannabes in various, high-level positions of political power. It will all be over soon. At least the faking it part anyway...





Fast Money
* * * * *

© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


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Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Glass-Steagall in the Face of Nazism


Before discussing the one and only bit of filth pertinent to reality wherein trillions of dollars of insolvent securities are at grave risk of being wiped from the face of the earth, let's take a dig at a soon-to-be-disgraced Leon Cooperman. How does one argue the U.S. Treasury market is a bubble ready to burst, and therefore equities are the place to be? Does the man have no clue about what holds together the U.S. banking system? If Treasuries go, bye bye Pooperman.

The world wherein the U.S. President had better watch his back got a lot more real today with the murder in Damascus, Syria of that nation's current defense minister, as well as a former defense minister now a senior military official, in addition to the president's brother-in-law who was deputy defense minister. This is a new frontier in the same battle for Glass-Steagall.

The perpetrators are best seen the offspring of Nazism. The Russians rather understand this, yet probably had a great laugh, too, when Obama called today to insist the United States is ready for more war in Asia. "And who will finance this war, Mr. Obama? China? Or the insolvent central banks of the trans-Atlantic?" In other words, Russia has room to move.

Today's children of Nazism have no national identity. These are out in the open in a venture to destroy national sovereignty. Although it's the English-speaking variety on both sides of the Atlantic my primary concern, all of the globe's nations are being threatened.

Nazism has penetrated both the British and American political scene to be sure. The entire Syrian operation is signature, and this right from the get-go last year. The disinformation campaign has been tremendous. Yet its connection with the City and Wall Street principally lives in the domain of "survival of the fittest." To these "free markets" are the same sort of unbelievable, cheap affront as "Work sets you free" written at the entrance of a concentration camp. They're only "free markets" until requiring taxpayer swindle, or outright slavery enforced through wars of conquest. Their ways and means are exactly the same as the 20th century's European variety. Always their objective is sweet sounding (just as with "free markets" — LIBOR!). Always their end destructive. Nazis. These alone violently oppose Glass-Steagall and in all likelihood spoke today in Damascus, Syria.

Their threat Putin's Russia principally faces. Syria is NOT the target. This much is crystal clear by Syria's treatment at the hands of a United States and Britain in bed with al Qaeda. Only Nazis would make such an alliance! Feigned "concern for the Syrian people" exposed for what it is: a Nazi tactic. Plainly, there are bigger fish to fry in Asia.

So, coming from a U.S. President haunting echoes of a sorrow-filled, Russian past in the face of similar Nazi tactics, well, that must have been a real pisser at the Kremlin. How can Russia's leadership doubt America's leadership (which obviously does not include the U.S. president) will stand up to Nazism? And how can Russia insure that it does? Today's new frontier reached in Damascus, Syria increases their imperative to move in this direction (particularly having considerable room in which to do so), while in both the U.S. and Britain is a pressing need for action against this Nazi menace presently acting in the names of U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her effeminate British Foreign Secretary counterpart Billy Hague. Not that party affiliation is any determining matter here, as it is in the Ivy League breeding ground (as is the case with Obama) and offshoot think tanks (covering most others) where Nazi tools of all party stripes generally are being groomed.

If you are uncomfortable consuming this message, my advice is invoke in your mind, right now, the final verse of the United States' National Anthem, then ask yourself: well, am I?



(... and from Teheran is additional light shed on our Nazi problem, as well as showing the American Revolution's "freedom of the press" exported in the internet age, making this victory yet further proof of the Revolution's legitimacy in truth that, all men are created equal, and so rightly endowed to life, liberty and happiness the world over.)



Fast Money
* * * * *

© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


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Tuesday, July 17, 2012

He Said, She Said, I Say


The gentleman suggesting you, "Put this in your pipe and smoke it" now offers you a light...

Today, BoE chief Mervyn King "dismissed accusations that he failed to pick up on the manipulation of Libor, saying he only found out about the malpractice two weeks ago and shooting back at implied criticism from U.S. authorities that London had been too slow to act."

"The first I knew of Libor wrongdoing was when FSA reports came out two weeks ago," King said.

"When questioned over a 2008 email sent by Timothy Geithner, then president of the New York Fed, to King about recommendations to enhance the credibility of Libor, King said the Fed did not raise any evidence of wrongdoing."

"In emails released by the Bank of England, Geithner's proposals, dated May 27, 2008, included a section on how to eliminate the incentive to misreport banks' lending rates."

Whereas appearing today before the Senate Banking Committee Bernice assured the panel that, British authorities were in the loop way back when, yet did not implement the New York Fed's recommendations.

And so is the intended destination in fact reached stirring a pot simmering Glass-Steagall. Someone's got some some splainin' to do (and her name, at least here anyway, is Tina). Not so fast sweeping Barclays under the rug, Team Fraud.


$NYA

So, let's take it right back to July 2011. Today's technical similarity is just too compelling (see momentum, bottom panel). Plus, there's a lot more weakness where that came from...


$BPNYA

A technical backdrop still markedly deteriorated finds today's "he said, she said" disparity at the core of the trans-Atlantic banking system a well-timed affair for kicking off a heaping helping of nasty.


Fast Money
* * * * *

© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


There's an easy way to boost your investment discipline...

Get Real-Time Trade Notification!