Enjoy the View ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Monday, November 19, 2012

Enjoy the View

Well, enjoy the view above the S&P 500's 200-day moving average, because it probably is not going to last long. Yes, the European "dumb money" disease went global today and provided the surge of relative buying interest absent Friday, thereby indicating bottom to the market's decline from September peak is nearing. This, however, is not to say bottom is either "at hand," or even "nearby."

Prior to Friday's presumed confirmation of an imminent August 2011 redux, it was but a week and a day earlier that, the same view was expressed. Then, just one day following my perspective was modified, yet this still had the market on the path to Swoon City. This is exactly where it remains. A trip lower approaching early-June bottom lies on the immediate horizon. This looks to be where the market's initial turn from its September peak will be settling.

Other than today's surge of relative buying interest, not a single technical measure is suggesting the market is out of the woods. No point calling today's volume "unimpressive," as a CME-led, short squeeze driven market has made unimpressive volume on advancing days something of a trend. Whatever it takes to make the books of hopelessly insolvent albatrosses appear sound and on the improve no doubt is the theme behind it. And suckers were buying it today, too. The CBOE Put/Call Ratio (whose momentum continues rising, by the way) reveals the "buy the dips" crowd evidently starving for a fleecing.

And fleeced they will be. That's my guarantee. Again, no need for diffidence. These pigs are goin' down...

Word on the Street
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© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

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