Counterbalancing Destruction ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Friday, July 22, 2011

Counterbalancing Destruction

And so now with insolvency threatening every corner of finance, both private and public ... with political leadership made hopelessly inept through corruption born of adherence to a distorted view of contemporary circumstance in which the ratio of sophistry to truth is directly proportional to the ratio of hatred and resistance to the status quo this view promotes (which might be objectively quantified by, say, the collapse in newspaper readership, or by 2008's opposition to TARP) ... now come vile acts of aggression and bloodshed with increasing frequency. Today's Oslo bombing, of course, was not the first such act, nor will it likely be the last.

Yet keep this fact in mind, too: nearly 40,000 people die each year in accidents occurring on American highways. In other words, there's no good reason to fear terror, in and of itself, which likely is to come. Rather, one's outlook is better centered on the means available for effectively reducing risk of catastrophic loss on any front no matter the cost.

Thus, the imperative that the United States immediately move to reinstate a Glass-Steagall reform of its banking system and lead the world forward in cultivating conditions conducive to accelerating productivity and growth.

In and of themselves, highway deaths and acts of terror will not be eliminated, of course. Yet their risk, nevertheless, in truth can be reduced only through positive action. Toward this end, gaining most efficient control over finance is both a necessary precursor, as well as a power deeply embedded in the U.S. Constitution. Glass-Steagall represents the means by which this power most assuredly is to be commanded and held to account. The end, of course, is unleashing the greatest measure of creation — making something from nothing, as is the principle underlying the idea of incorporation — whose effect serves to counterbalance destructive forces, both natural and man-made, standing as a barrier to reaching a multitude of difficult, yet desirable objectives.

Thus, Glass-Steagall — the U.S. Constitution's principle made policy — carries forward the American Revolution as a creative flanking operation against those many evils arrayed in opposition to the promotion of such conditions as are best suited for a humanity rightly assumed equally endowed to life, liberty and happiness.

If only we had a president who spoke this language, rather than that of a pathetic bean counter (you can watch Il Duce's Q&A here). You might think it a pity that, a president would not lead in promoting policy exerting principle upon which the United States is founded. Yet the man's endorsement by the Financial Times of London during the 2008 campaign made clear from the beginning this was not the intention. One can only hope the row Mr. Obama is creating among the Democratic party's leadership in Congress in his drive to bankrupt the U.S. Treasury through death by a thousand cuts, this that a bunch of insolvent swindlers might buy time to further position their interests for the coming kill, rather will hasten his prompt impeachment. There are crimes against the Constitution for which this president can and should be indicted. Likewise, the current climate appears increasingly ripe for bi-partisan action. However, the Congress being well-proven, sophist cowards there's little reason to be optimistic.

Thus, too, does today's Oslo represent the sort of imposed condition whose effect could prevent any positive action serving to arrest the growing risk of abundant life as we know it becoming a distant memory. Plainly, a field cultivated in hatred is ripe for the harvest. Yet cowardice still persists. Much as illegitimate debt in the grand scheme reveals but tolerance of ignorance — a reasonable comparison in principle harkens back to any Middle Age, European city where human excrement was discarded in the street — much as the evil insisting on its continued imposition is not averse to violence, such are preconditions by which even the United States for all intents and purposes is at increasing risk of being destroyed.

$CPCSeveral times since the 2008 showing of "The Emperor's New Clothes" cows have quickened their relative hunger for a piece of the farm much as now (see MACD, bottom panel). Then, afterward, without fail, the farmer, ever capital starved, found it necessary to cull the herd.

Thus does the market's near-term outlook appear challenged. Bolstering this view is the weak relative state of Bullish Percent Indexes — both NYSE and NASDAQ — a precarious underlying condition but bolstered by ever-diminishing leadership — again, both on the NYSE and NASDAQ.

So, distribution continues to be the order of the day, one whose present moment finds cows largely corralled and apparently ready for the culling. Nevertheless, another day or two calling cows in still might develop. This week's advance certainly appears to have legs yet.


The question is how long these legs will prove to be. I'm inclined to think wave 4 of (c) of five waves up from late-June 2010 continues to unfold. Thus, any follow-through to this week's advance should be rather limited, paving the way for another declining period whose unfolding likely will complete wave 4 of (c).

Yet the current, absolute position of both relative strength (top panel) and momentum (bottom) raise the possibility that, wave 4 of (c) ended at this past Monday's low, and wave 5 of (c) has begun to unfold. Still, underlying technical weakness mentioned above bolsters the likelihood that, completion of wave 4 of (c) awaits the unfolding of another leg down to the lower end of the market's trading range so far this year...

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