Tonight, I Enjoyed a Sucker ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Monday, April 05, 2010

Tonight, I Enjoyed a Sucker

A Blow Pop to be precise... It probably has been at least 25 years since I last had one.

Another Monday's bait and milk... Today's volume even tamer than Thursday's suggests the final push higher is underway. After all, has not a notably subdued volume of shares exchanged coincided with the greater bulk of the market's advance off early-February bottom?


Approaching trouble's fair warning also is seen in meager volume accompanying the decided push the Big Board's composite index made into new high ground, post-March '09 bottom, over the past two days. This hardly represents the mark of conviction in the prolonged viability of the market's rally since early-February.

Seeing this apparent lack of conviction when, now a month later, the NYSE Composite finally is joining the NASDAQ Composite decidedly above its January 2010 peak seems further telling the same story of the past thirteen months...


...Namely, NASDAQ's leadership still remains as misplaced in the present instance as it was in August 2008, and as it was October, 1998 through March, 2000.

The longstanding, relative lack of upside participation coming from the majority of NASDAQ-listed issues entirely belies NASDAQ's seeming "strength." Add the lack of conviction accompanying the NYSE Composite's upside breakout over the past two days (as evidenced by volume's disappearing act), and trouble's fair warning is made only all the more clearer.

Trouble draws nearer.

Forget about "improving data" Finerman cites as positive basis for equities and Seymour concurs with. The name of the game is "Inflate or Die" — flood the globe with dubious credit securities, or collapse. Those pretending a pulse still coming from various corners of our post-industrial economy portends a return to the status quo in contemporary financial markets are engaging an exercise in sophistry.

Fast Money
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