Shades of Complacency ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Friday, April 23, 2010

Shades of Complacency

Apparently there were portfolio managers today who got yesterday's word portfolio managers are chasing NYSE leaders...


Another expansion in NYSE new 52-week highs ... and this despite the broad Composite Index NOT reaching a new 52-week high...


A first in post-March '09, counter-trend rally history! And a dangerous sign, too. Revealed is increased complacency amidst still further distribution.

But adding weight is NASDAQ...


You might say this group has a storied recent-history of demonstrating, shall we say, quirkiness at tops ... standing out somehow ... leading by some extreme measure.

What to make of such on-balance selling withheld as could keep the relative strength of NASDAQ's advance at its most positive yet since March '09 bottom?

...and not only that, but for such a remarkable duration!

...and this while momentum continues its multi-month weakening while fading over the short-term, as well.

An advance losing steam hardly seems worthy of such restraint as keeps levitated the relative strength behind the advance. Indeed, complacency best explains this condition.

And this toward the riskiest of U.S. equities (i.e. those listed on NASDAQ)!

... which, by the way, failed seeing today an expansion in the number of listed-issues hitting new 52-week highs...


Maybe this is a case of splitting hairs, but interesting, nevertheless ... seeing this divergence with the NYSE today ... now following NASDAQ's consistent, underlying lag, as measured by its new 52-week highs versus the NYSE.

So, despite today's look of something with legs enough to bring a solid follow-through on Monday, the technical case demonstrating increasing complacency appears likely to rise commensurately...

Fast Money
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