The Best Guide on Wall Street Comes From Universal Studios ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Monday, June 02, 2008

The Best Guide on Wall Street Comes From Universal Studios

They say the Lord works in mysterious ways...

Yesterday's massive fire destroying NBC/Universal's New York City set in Hollywood is rather curious in its symbolism, wouldn't you say?

I mean, I believe the pen is mightier than the sword and I know I've been bearish. But I tell you ... I AM INNOCENT!

Besides, I am lighting an entirely different fire here...

Obviously, today's opening thud came as no surprise to this Elliott Wave Guy. It actually was a thing to behold. You could almost sense a desperate effort to hold the thing up. The boiler room bid was barely budging, but the big boys were bursting like bombs after the first five minutes.

Despite an effort to bid up the pre-open futures, apparently some group on Wall Street would have none of it. A large pack of lemmings were subsequently clobbered.

Come lemmings. Come one. Come all. Come now...

OEX 5-min

I find it rather curious that, after today's mid-day bottom, RSI could recover to a level of buy-side strength higher than where it stood when today's commemoration of the Universal Studios fire began.

Recently I have been looking for signs of irrational exuberance. Obviously, in this case it would be a reflection of mentality believing the worst is behind us. You might say, then, RSI rising so strongly following today's opening thrashing and tepid, late-day bounce is a case in point.

But I think there's even more here than meets the eye ... something very supportive of my outlook for an imminent stock market meltdown.

Methinks strong hands, well disguised, dumped stocks going into mid-day and simply stepped away. Then, it was left to the tried and true lemmings — the weak hands — to pick the carcass.

I have no proof really. However, I can think of 101 reasons strong hands (or those formerly among their ranks) would want to cash in their chips.

Just look how marginally the S&P 100 recovered following the a.m. fire. Still, recover it did. For whatever reason, the good sense to sell for fear the worst is not behind us was largely restrained ... yet once again.

There's really no point wondering why. Good sense largely has been absent since the March 17, 2008 bottom.

There's only witnessing what came of today's bounce ... and wondering if those who went bottom fishing are as unimpressed as I am right now ... and worried whether strong hands are about to fire up a blow torch.

It appears they are. Then, what might lemmings do if their apparently disbelieving suspicion comes true ... as strong hands begin dumping copious loads of stock (compared to today's tiny smattering)? Well, I don't call them lemmings for nothing.

Yet, again, tomorrow is another day for firms manufacturing financial dreams ... with help from media who brazenly bash the greatest form of government the world has ever seen ... to stir up the animal spirits of those who, today, demonstrated both their fearlessness and their fear of being taken over the edge.

Indeed, looking under the covers it seems one day of respite might be in order. Who knows? Maybe even today's vaguely awakened sense of pending doom might be quickly erased from many a lemming's memory with an advance largely recovering today's devastation.

I'm not worried. Come what may, we are golden...

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