To Whom The Bell Tolls ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Friday, March 09, 2012

To Whom The Bell Tolls

And now bearings on just what is a "Spanish minute" measuring time elapsed from application of the dirtiest band-aid yet over Greece's mortal wound to implosion of the bankrupt euro-zone...

Adding to still cratering euro-zone finance, too, is the hyperinflationary policy-induced collapse of Europe's physical economy...

Just how does Dallara propose Europe's other debt-trapped basket cases avoid following Greece? Maybe some part of the Greek "deal" has given these nations first rights to explore Greek coastal waters for sunken treasure lost in ancient times? Alas, the hyperinflationary shutdown of energy production could make fuel for such exploration fleets scarcer than gold! Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy will be singing debt restructuring in no time at all.

It's not a question of "if" others follow Greece. The question is when will a united front form aiming to avoid isolated victimization under cover of monetarist sophistry, such as would have investors claiming a "loss" on unrealized gains their now defunct risk assets will never see. They're called risk assets for a reason. So, calling a "loss" income that, a fairly compensated risk has cancelled simply is pure sophistry for a gullible public's consumption. By no means were Greek bonds written down by 75%.

Well, we can be happy McDonalds still is hiring, this undoubtedly due to the frantic dealings of the cadre of incompetents traveling the globe desperately trying to reanimate a banking system corpse theirs was no accident in killing, and in so doing propping up the hospitality industry with jobs for chambermaids who risk being Dominique'd by their employers' guests in the hope of being tipped well enough to wash down their shame with a Big Mac and fries.

All satire aside, the hour is getting late if there is any intention to lessen the terror and chaos present circumstance suggests in store as conditions proceed to worsen while intermittent pauses only temporarily halt the globe's long slide into an abyss consuming both wealth and peace. Per the euro-zone's pending implosion and the trans-Atlantic banking system's consequent collapse, it's the "voluntary" aspect of the Greek deal virtually assuring the EMU's disintegration. Thus war appears imperative for those whose power is derived from the fragile, fraud-rife, global financial empire that gave birth to the euro, this as a stopgap measure aiming to forestall collapse, as well as create political conditions conducive to consolidating power in the aftermath. Yet stopping dead in its tracks this downward spiral into an imperial system's brutality requires courage to admit at the root of today's trouble is illegitimate debt amassed in the build-out of a securities-based Ponzi scheme, which debt was all the more compounded following the scheme's collapse in 2008: debt whose restructuring positively requires Glass-Steagall.

NYSE McClellan

Two alternate Elliott wave counts are shown above. The darker labels seem more likely in the current environment (indicating wave 4 of c presently is forming). However the lighter labels, suggesting a sharp turn lower could be imminent, find supporting evidence in the McClellan Oscillator. Deteriorating underlying conditions long established, a moment of severe market weakness might be in store now with the Oscillator having turned decidedly negative.

Still, despite such increasing underlying weakness as the McClellan Oscillator is displaying, the market is holding up rather well. And why shouldn't it? Europe's debt problems are being "solved" and the ECB is now halfway to the Geithner Minimum. Every minute still counts.

Dead ahead could be the proverbial exception to the rule that, no one rings a bell when the market reaches top. Somewhere from the many places where risk of game changing conflict is sharply increasing, odds are a bell will be rung. Trouble is its sounding could prove too late for the average hyperinflation junkie whose stocks today apparently are held in belief they are "cheap." Of course, a scenario leaving most trapped with no hope of exiting is no certainty. Still, it is a risk (and it is increasing).

Fast Money
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