The Risk Averse Alert

What to make of Greece's struggle with investors holding its sovereign debt who must in the majority "voluntarily" ratify its write down, this for crisis in the euro-zone to abate, if only for a Spanish minute?


They say it's not over until the fat lady sings. Well, the best we can do here is check out the pipes on the Greek finance minister... Nice, but look at the condition of those buildings! It's all over except for the shouting. Trouble is the clamor for debt write down can only grow louder from here on out. So, chances are the Greek finance minister will once again bend over as far as he can and extend the PSI "negotiation." Every minute counts when your banking system is stuffed to the gills with "assets" already marked to fantasy that, likely face further pressure in the murky domain where Greek debt write down could bring unintended consequences born of either a deeper hit on euro-zone confidence, or a stronger shot of sovereign boldness challenging the much hated troika. Every minute counts. That's why a strictly technical trade could persist as it has and give out so decidedly, as happened today. Today's gap lower is one huge Venizelos. With relative strength and momentum both turning down hard, suddenly shorter is the time and space for the market to weaken further in the lead up to its anticipated collapse. Confirming likelihood the market has further to fall is the CBOE Put/Call Ratio. A setback like today's, were it but a pause in the market's advance, would have seen buyers who stepped in more aggressively hedge their long equity positions with put options, that is were the likes, indeed, strong hands. There's still time for this to happen. So, it is still too early to claim with any conviction that, the fat lady has started to sing. Yet sing, without a doubt, she will. © The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority. Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path. Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended. There's an easy way to boost your investment discipline... Get Real-Time Trade Notification!