A Positive Among the Negative ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Monday, June 06, 2011

A Positive Among the Negative

Anyone else notice a fairly negative near-term outlook unanimously expressed by Fast Money traders today?

Do you recall a similar unanimity of negative sentiment among the same group noted here early-July 2010?

My conclusion then was that the market was bottoming. There's reason to conclude the same again...


Despite the NYSE Bullish Percent Index indicating the market remains locked in H-E-double hockey sticks with its RSI (top panel) trapped below 30 — a condition consistently coinciding with weakness over the course of the market's counter-trend rally since March '09 (as noted here previously) — we likewise see positive technical divergences developing, as well, much as registered last year.

So, unless I am mistaken about the market's current position per the Elliott wave count off late-June 2010 bottom (presently supposing the fourth wave of five waves up is nearing its end), another 5-10% lower (as seems the general consensus among traders) does not appear in the cards.

If anything, a nice bounce, a la early-June 2010, could be in order here. Thus, too, might the fourth wave of five waves up from late-June 2010 — these forming wave (c) of an a-b-c corrective wave up from March '09 bottom — persist in prolonged development, already having been forming since early-November 2010.

Fast Money
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Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

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