Complacency: 2008 and Now ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Monday, June 13, 2011

Complacency: 2008 and Now

Despite a good technical case for anticipating a final advance in the market's counter-trend rally off March '09 bottom upcoming, there's reason to suspect bottom from which this move higher will commence still awaits...

SPX 5-min

Disproportionate dumps at the market's open on three recent occasions followed by only weak recovery failing to reverse the market's decline these past couple weeks suggest further selling might be in store before wave 5 of (c) [higher] subsequently unfolds.


The market's current position is seen similar to the late-January, early-February 2010 period. In anticipation of its upcoming reversal higher what technical state might be evidenced once the 50-day moving average is approached might be a lot like late-February 2010. As then, an indication of further gains ahead reasonably should be anticipated.

DJIA weekly

Yet that approaching could be a peak of major consequence is evidence volume presents. Just as diminishing volume registered during the market's counter-trend rally from January-May 2008 indicated underlying complacency whose error soon after was exposed, so too is likely upcoming.

Only the more does complacency apparently rule, as the market nears a precipice from which its collapse, indeed, could commence more rapidly than most observers these days seem capable of imagining, and this despite the lesson of '08.

It might as well have been two million years ago. The mindset of days of old — when debt to sustain Adam Smith's Leveraged Ponzi Scheme was risk easily mediated without frantic support from lenders of last resort — dies hard among a much too complacent majority.

By the way, Dennis Gartman did well to identify the physical issues as presently find suitable oil refining capacity in the U.S. inadequate, thus expanding on last week's riddle...

Such is life when you've been asset stripped and buried with ultimately unpayable debt.

Fast Money
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