Structured Finance: Another Elvis Sighting ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Thursday, March 05, 2009

Structured Finance: Another Elvis Sighting


Hey Cramer... Need a cleanex? Why don't you spend a minute spitting your Bs and Ps at the Mother Ship. I mean, after all, they only own a network that spends the whole day and night begging someone rescue their hopeless book. Why don't you go tell your managing editor, "Change the subject!"

Earth to Monetarist Monkey. The world of wildcat finance you apparently believe can somehow be revived is dead. Even Gordon Brown knows it. It will not come back. It's with Elvis now.

Look, the likes who come on the network and suggest the government cannot manage finance like the private sector? That one's getting funnier by the day! Is this the same private sector that endlessly argued its ability to "self-regulate?" Give me a Mastercard and a chart of AIG and I'll give you a fine script whose last word is, "Priceless."

You can have your gold and bank CDs, Monkey Man. I am not budging. Why should I? Because a C wave (of an a-b-c down from January '09) is demonstrating how an Elliott third wave is typically most dynamic? I should ignore the present moment's incredible similarity to bottom March '08?

There's more blood in the streets than you can shake a stick at. Technical divergences abound. There is not one thing I need change about the outlook I have maintained here. Nor of humility resulting in momentary challenge to my long position. Even if the ultimate upside objective I submit is imminently in store proves too optimistic, there is enough good reason to hold out for a better moment to exit.

On the fundamental front — removing one's self from the blur of hysteria bringing a Harvard man to lay 50% odds on a coming Depression — one might suppose a call to "outlaw the shadow banking system" along with an upcoming financial "stress test" could result in a catalyst corralling all the structured crap, isolating it and leaving its owners holding the bag ... or at least culminating in something moving in that direction ... paving the way for renewed financial stability over coming decades.

Considering all the sideline money, it seems what's needed to move it back into the game simply is a winner in the ongoing proxy fight over control of the financial system. As best as I can tell there is a growing bipartisanship consensus ready to stand up to idle threats of Armageddon coming from the Federal Reserve were extraordinarily burdensome derivative contracts made null and void. For this we can thank Hank Greenberg.


Fast Money
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3 comments:

Paul Davis said...

Tom,
As much as I would like to be in the bull camp, I don;t see it happening at this point.
1) We still have not reached capitulation per p/c or rydex ratios
2) The REAL economy is getting shittier by the DAY, depressing already brutal earnings
3)The resistance broken recently will likely prove to a MAJOR barrier to the upside

Thus, per your most recent chart, I do not see the 200-day avg or long-term downtrend line being touched for YEARS. Hate to be a pessimist, but I see many parallels to 29-32 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/bear-market-comparisons-1929-2009/

Anonymous said...

TC,

I'm pretty much all in on the long side, with just a little bit of ammo left. I agree that bottom is very close, but I think we may have a massive capitulation brewing.

The NYSE McO has been improving although prices are falling (divergence), I think in the oversold state all moves are exaggerated whether up or down.

Does the current meandering from 2/23 seem reminiscent of the meandering between mid January and mid February?

I think a massive capitulation would give us the extreme P/C sentiment that would give us confidence in bottom.

Also what are your thoughts on SOA? I believe this stock could go to 4-7 within a month.

TC said...

SOA: no price-RSI divergence registered as a consequence of the throttling this stock has endured over the past week or so. Contrast this to March '08. Thus, I have my doubts about it reaching $4-7 within a month.