One Day Closer to Melt-Up ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Tuesday, March 03, 2009

One Day Closer to Melt-Up

And who said you couldn't draw blood from a stone?

So, the chairman of Bankrupt International, Gordon Brown, is in town visiting the man Cramer says is single-handedly responsible for taking the market down. Apparently, they teach a "different" American history at Harvard Law School. Much like the Mother Ship's stock price these days, subsidiary CNBC plainly fails to bring good things to life. Someone give that Monetarist Monkey a banana.

Coming right up...


So, straight ahead, as soon as they're done milking Nelly, it should start looking a lot like March 17 - May 19, 2008. That's my prediction. This time, though, conditions could appear considerably better than they have for quite some time. Think back to, say, 2003.

Remember back in the day when the stock market was rising gangbusters and some were talking about Dow 36,000 being just around the corner? Well, it's somewhat similar right now in reverse — close enough for this discussion anyway — to think all the crazy talk of disaster is soon enough likely to be silenced by a move so decisive Kudlow and Luskin stand to reach new, unbearable heights in British America banter.

Unlikely? Well, yes, the world at large appears quite blind to this extraordinarily positive possibility.

What better way to confuse negative prospects, looking out 2-3 years (mentioned yesterday), than a decisive move above the 200-day moving average over weeks straight ahead, followed by a lot of bouncing around, holding above the 200-day for many weeks/months thereafter?

That in a nutshell is my near-term view.

Fast Money
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Anonymous said...


I second your view. I think the meltup is imminent, making money whether bull or bear is never this easy. Most will be caught short or on the sidelines during this move.

As previously discussed, I'm long in a big way. I would feel comfortable going all in if:

1. We gap down big
2. CBOE P/C gives us confirmation of extreme sentiment > 1.2

Good Luck.

Anonymous said...


Another chart showing bottom and a nice divergence, to boot.$NYA50R&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40102433694

TC said...

Nice. Thanks for sharing. Here's the hyperlink:

Percent of NYSE Stocks Trading Above 50 Day Moving Average

Technical divergences abound. The extent to which technicals have been beaten with the ugly stick is instructive both toward recognizing near-term bullish potential and the longer-term bearish threat.