A Taller, Tanner Herbert Hoover and the Same Mr. Market ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Monday, March 30, 2009

A Taller, Tanner Herbert Hoover and the Same Mr. Market

Yet again Nature's God demonstrates how little is the value of an Ivy League education...

That the President of the United States would stand against a domestic industry refusing to destroy itself as rapidly as has been legislatively mandated over the past thirty years is all the evidence one needs to counter Shemp's claim that the current extraordinary period is not a 1929 redux...

Herbert Hoover similarly turned his back on industry with the same old tired line about the American spirit, lauding its can do, comeback character. Still, unemployment grew.

Herbert Hoover similarly prostrated himself to Wall Street through the institution of the Reconstruction Finance Corporation, which was the TARP of his day. Still, the banking system collapsed.

Herbert Hoover similarly took his policy cues from London ... and for this he paid dearly.

I'm sorry, Cramer, but I beg to differ. We are facing a crisis of historic dimension when a President claiming to identify with Abraham Lincoln, FDR and JFK behaves like Herbert Hoover. Back in the day when London held its fascist financier political puppet show, FDR failed to make an appearance. He canceled. $550 says the President gets on his plane and does the Queen's bidding come Thursday.

(Now that Dylan's gone, someone's got to pick up the slack.)

Don't get me wrong. I entirely agree with Cramer's near-term view. In fact, I share his same confidence that no more than 5% lower is probable here. Yet given the course upon which the President has embarked, any serious student of history must side with that 85 year old geezer, LaRouche (the last, living founding father, as I affectionately call him). Come this fall, indeed, could come the fall of the U. S. of A. in hyperinflationary collapse brought on by an assorted array of monetarist monkeys, inept politicians and despicable TV personalities.


Can you tell I'm a little worked up about today's low volume thud? So, reluctantly, I'll give this one to the crowd. But in no way has my view changed, not even the slightest.

This morning CNBC's Matt Nesto reported "no one" is pounding the table calling a bottom. Apparently, el Nesto is not a loyal reader. Then again, though, I have not been pounding the table. Well, I am now.

RSI is flattening out — already having firmly penetrated the buy-side, now bumping the point where buying and selling strength are in balance (i.e. 50) — hearkening that old Wall Street adage again ... the one that says the trend is your friend. Just look back a month ago when the trend then was lower. RSI likewise flattened out, only to set up the market's further fall. (And you might ask where was I? Well, I wish I could tell you! Apparently I was just a hankerin' for some humble pie. I'm all fulled up now, thank you...)

SPX 5-min

Take away Friday's and today's opening half hour and you have a market that's probably banking gains made this month. Thus, money managers will have something on which to hang a hat when their fund's performance during the first quarter is reported. I should have thought of this possible outcome. However, I simply did not want to miss what I am convinced will be the markets further push higher.

Let me just say that, despite Elliott Wave-related possibilities being finite at any given moment, my investment position [obviously] will not be performing perfectly at every instant. If I could call every twist and turn and be positioned accordingly, trust me, I would.

Still, here we are, right where finite Elliott Wave possibilities suggested was an alternative even back in November. At this point the market has much higher to go. The next several months should see indexes inexorably rising, albeit on a trajectory likely flattening over time.

Fast Money
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