A Political Assessment of Crash Probabilities ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

A Political Assessment of Crash Probabilities

Reader Bernie sent me the following e-mail today from Glenn Neely, founder of the NEoWave Institute.
SUBJECT: Stock Market CRASH Imminent!!

As I occasionally do, I send out PUBLIC Notices of BIG market events
on the horizon. Earlier today, ALL of our NEoWave Trading customers
Shorted the S&P near the highs (around 1040 and 1019 in the Dec.

Based on current, short-term wave structure, the S&P is now at risk of

PLEASE protect yourself and don't get caught in the "bargain hunting,
and the market is bottoming," mentality.

Good Luck,
Glenn Neely
NEoWave, Inc.

As I indicated yesterday, the possibility of a collapse "remains open." Other than a deeply oversold condition having no modern precedent, there is nothing I can cite (technically speaking) that might make a conclusive case against a crash occurring right now. After all, the the trend is your friend and there is nothing saying a deeply oversold market cannot become more so.

Yet as far as I am concerned, much depends on how soon last Friday's intra-day low is challenged. Right now, underlying technicals are on the fence. It simply will take some time to know with better certainty which way the Lehman CDS winds blow...

Cramer did a brilliant job tonight of documenting the mechanics of British Empire financial warfare against the United States.

So, with the bailout of the mother ship of bankrupt free market liberal capitalism accomplished and a virtual bankers dictatorship cemented in the process, what purpose would be served by precipitating a crash prior to a new crop of friendly Tories being elected to Congress and the White House? Why not wait for a better moment to break American political will? The right stands totally discredited. So, now awaits the left and a transformation of "change you can believe in" into more of the same old, same old...

Thus, might conditions then be better set for still further compromise of the American Republic and potential it alone holds as a beacon of hope for all humanity against the new boss ... same as the old boss ... tyranny?

Has anyone seen Henry Clay?

Fast Money
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