Not Yet Time To Be "All In" ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Monday, October 20, 2008

Not Yet Time To Be "All In"

Did you happen to notice both the NYSE and NASDAQ McClellan Oscillators turned positive following today's "surge" higher in the stock market? The case for bottom builds.

Did you also happen to notice volume the past three days has been drying up, while indexes have been rising?


One of the Fast Money Traders questioned this tonight while Carter Worth was presenting his case for being "all in" on the long side. Carter didn't answer Tim Seymour. So, I will...

Are you noticing various commentators and analysts (myself included?) displaying a great deal of willingness to pound the table on bottom being in?


The CBOE Put/Call Ratio sure is coming in quite fast. You might say those who are pounding the table about bottom being in are putting their money where their mouth is. Likewise, OEX open interest has begun the November front-month with a decided bias to the Call side. This suggests either strong hands are short the market and their positions are hedged with Call options, or speculators are so sure about bottom, they're "all in."

I don't like this one bit. It's not that I am afraid the floor is about to fall out from underneath the market. Rather, I suspect the official Vince Farrell bottom has yet to be seen. Looks like there might be more gnashing of teeth still to come.

This is not to suggest the market will immediately reverse tomorrow and begin its final dive. Indeed, it may be several days ... and possibly a few weeks ... before the market retests recent lows ... then subsequently explodes higher.

Fast Money
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