The New Greenspan Briefcase Indicator ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Thursday, June 07, 2012

The New Greenspan Briefcase Indicator

Today's gold nugget is courtesy of Tim Seymour, who during tonight's Fast Money gave perspective to this morning's surprise rate cut in China, indicating this was the first PBOC rate cut since ... drum roll ... the financial crisis of '08. Interesting! Coincidence? I think not.

A close second to this bit of enlightenment on a panic-stricken backdrop was later revelation of a sizable institutional trade made today betting on a huge pickup in volatility going into September. You don't say! What are the odds? Elevated to say the least.

I thought Bernanke looked sickly today during his appearance before a joint economic committee of Congress. This raises a question. Are we looking at the new "Greenspan briefcase indicator?" Remember that one back during Happy Days when Ponzi was cool? Maybe Bernanke cannot help but wear the face of a trapped titan. Surely, he is not alone.

So, the wonder now is whether the ECB can wait the weekend before injecting another mega tranche of hyperinflationary happiness into the oh-so-well-regulated European banking system. Yet any European "surprise" following on the heels of today's out of China probably would have the same fleeting effect, as more are coming to a right sense of panic behind the scenes precipitating extraordinary central bank action at present.


Then again, maybe any ECB "surprise" will have to wait until after European markets close. So, today's soft follow-through to a massively overbought open might spill into tomorrow's trading for a spell, leaving even the mere rumor of another LTRO sometime mid-day to save the trans-Atlantic banking system at least until Monday.

Having highlighted above the two best days on the NYSE thus far in 2012 (this per $NYAD) we see today's trade something of a mirror image to the day following the former best day of 2012 which occurred on May 21st. The big difference now, though, is that both relative strength (top panel) and momentum (bottom) have repaired. Both measures are more so in balance than was the case in May. Yet still, both measures remain disposed to the negative side of their respective ranges (while RSI is negatively diverging in much the same manner as the NYSE McClellan Oscillator following yesterday's trip to the rumor mill).

Translation: cancel any ECB surprise of significant consequence. Truth is they're even more trapped than the Fed, which at least has the U.S. Treasury in its back pocket.

Fast Money
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