The Hitler Card ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Friday, June 15, 2012

The Hitler Card

The technical picture following today's positive follow-through to unsubstantiated rumors of coordinated central bank intervention late yesterday confirms the essence of my conclusion of it. Namely that, what really has been gained is but "a few minutes more for trapped weak hands to offload a few more scraps of garbage." It appears today's quarterly witching helped the cause...


The NYSE Composite Index's close above its 200-day moving average on increasing volume is a positive, no?

No. (But no doubt made to order for those hooked on fraud and hanging on for dear life, as appearances are everything when common knowledge is that, all is not what it seems. Even those who drool over incredibly low price-to-book on financials, like Karen Finerman, get it ... notwithstanding viewpoints straight out of fantasy land.)


That's a bearish divergence. If strong hands were behind today's bump in volume, then as the NYSE Composite Index advanced higher off its early-June bottom the above measure more surely would have expanded, rather than come up short of its best set last Wednesday.

As this bearish divergence is occurring while the market struggles higher (this very much along lines suspected a week ago), there is another ominous technical setup coinciding with today's lift higher off early-June bottom, raising likelihood the market is not about to receive any pleasant surprises out of Europe.


The above indicated CBOE Put/Call Ratio divergence often coincides with market tops. For a better sense of what could lie in store with $CPC trending higher pretty much the entire year, while more or less printing above its 200-day moving average since May, just look back to this time last year. As you will plainly see contrasting this measure's recent momentum swings with those leading to last August's throttling (see MACD, bottom panel), a much bigger hurting could be in the works. Go figure.

Rumor has it Germany desires the euro's survival. Yet what has it done to mitigate the threat of Greece's chaotic exit from the EMU? Their silence in the face of Greek demands to renegotiate the troika "memorandum" currently accelerating Greece's collapse is curious. Why isn't this tack even being pushed by bailout junkies, let alone Germany?

News Flash! Germany wants Greece to leave the EMU. Why? Because Germany wants the EMU to collapse. Why? "Fool me once, shame on you" (WWI). "Fool me twice, shame on me" (WWII). If you think Russia is working overtime in Greece, just imagine the juicy slice of Russian energy supplies awaiting Germany following the EMU's demise!

Truth of the matter is many more centuries will need to pass before Hitler is forgotten, and such chaos leading to the likes but awaits a Wiemar redux. The odds of this occurring voluntarily are zero.

So, brace yourself for raw acts of violence venturing submission to a hyperinflationary imperial flop, itself poising to be but icing on a larger misery cake should a major conflagration — world war — be a fait accompli. Desperate times call for desperate measures, yet as such are harder to disguise. In truth this moment likewise presents historic opportunity to extend all the way to England the American Revolution. The world's most accomplished builder of financial anchors is proven in its short history. Glass-Steagall certainly could wield a lot of American punch in the thermonuclear age.

Fast Money
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