Balancing Suckers on the Bankrupt ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Balancing Suckers on the Bankrupt


There isn't a single positive technical development anywhere to report. Not one. Simply put, weak hands were given a reprieve today, and rather than act on an imminent convulsion within the trans-Atlantic financial system, the ├╝ber levered and overexposed did what they do best: raise prices on their deep inventory of toilet paper, seeking suckers willing to pay up.


$SPX

There's a case for supposing a so-called "fifth wave failure" completes five waves down from July 7th peak forming wave (1) of C. Thus, wave (2) of C would be seen having begun unfolding today.

We're probably looking at several weeks over which wave (2) will take form. Some variation of a three-wave, a-b-c, Elliott corrective wave is slated to develop over the interim. Whether this will produce a so-called "running correction" as detailed yesterday, or some other Elliott corrective wave variation is entirely uncertain.

One thing likely to occur will see wave c of (2) challenging the S&P 500's falling 50-day moving average, this right at the precipice before the market embarks on a decline likely to be the worst in several generations. Right now, wave a of (2) is seen being early in its formation.

Could a trip straight up to the 50-day moving average be in store? I rather suppose not, but anything is possible. How many times over the past three years has the market advanced in the face of a weak technical backdrop? Countless.


Fast Money
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