The Risk Averse Alert

Sorry, but I can't help myself. If the masters of television want to make jokes of truth with obfuscation of facts, then someone is bound to take the opening and make people laugh...

Here's a Goldman story that went unnoticed last week while I was vacationing at the CME. Apparently, there's been a shark sighting on Wall Street.

Move over Sea World. Hello SEC. Killer whales got nothing on this Great White shark pool. Thought you might be interested in who's playing Jaws and who will be eaten. It's the Cox 19.

Cramer, Cramer, Cramer. You're good. I'm not complaining. But sometimes you are just plain ridiculous. Here. Do this. Think of Dr. McCoy saying, "Dammit Jim, I'm a doctor not a commando!" Okay, repeat after me: "Dammit Jim, I'm a hedge fund manager, not a convincing actor!" Your rant on short selling ... c'mon who are you kidding? You're like sweet icing on a Goldman cake. Surely, you know no one is buying bank equity. The feeding frenzy has begun and the chef's specialty is assets on the cheap.

So, this is where we're at. Could it be any more in your face? And what stock market sector has been driving fear over the past year? Here come a fast ball?




This evening's news bodes selling at Tuesday's open. I'm wary whether this will be "the big one," part 1, though. There could be more "work" needed before the advance beginning last Tuesday morning (7.15.08) is completed. Nevertheless, don't imagine the coming peak will be much higher than where the S&P 100 traded this morning.

The channel drawn above is only to provide some guideposts showing the range in which trading might unfold over the next couple days. That's not to say top might not be reached in the next couple hours, though. So, heads up.




There's the possible shape of things to come ... showing the coming blast lower to 520 ... followed by consolidation, possibly downward sloping, similar to wave iv of 1 ... and completed by a final fade to the vicinity of 480.

Just imagine the gnashing of teeth. You think bearishness now is bad? Hey, Maria is back ... our bottom belle. And for the time being she still is squeaking. This, I believe, coincides quite well with sentiment revealed on the options front...




A picture is worth a thousand words I think. Here you see "like from like" possibilities ... now, relative to last December '07. It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas. And the forecast is a blizzard of shares.




Sure looks to me like volatility could be poised to rocket higher, too.

Go figure!


© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.

There's an easy way to boost your investment discipline...

Get Real-Time Trade Notification!