Toccata & Fugue for a Market Coming Unglued ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Monday, July 07, 2008

Toccata & Fugue for a Market Coming Unglued

It is not looking too terribly sparky for them there bulls I must say.

Poor young Erin. Do you, too, see her face showing the despair of a shrinking portfolio? Will this be a rough week for oblivious(?) optimists on the network for American business?

Still, Maria squeaks.

The city can be such a cruel place. Just how much we might better know tomorrow.

I know. I know. One day it's, "Shriek, a bounce!," the next it's like January, and now like July '02? Truth is I could see everything coming unglued ... and stat.

OEX weekly

Persistent index price weakness suggests everything under the covers might be loudly shouting, "Danger!" There's certainly nothing conclusively suggesting the market must bounce here.

Don't get me wrong. It could. But then again, any bounce worthy of options play might not develop until after the market craters over the next few days.


Recall June 26, 2008 was the worst day down since the May 19, 2008 peak (per NYSE Advances-Declines). One thing you might say, then, is the trend lower accelerated that day.

Now, consider downward bias in the S&P 100's consolidation following its June 26th thud. This simply might be pointing the way to a further acceleration of the market's decline.

There's nothing under the covers suggesting an imminent capitulation is impossible. (Go to StockCharts and see for yourself.) The daily RSI divergence formed over the past several days (seen above) might likely amount to nothing, as well (meaning RSI divergence here probably is not reflective of some building, underlying strength).

OEX 5-min

The past two trading days have witnessed a couple notable moments featuring a heightened degree of selling urgency. First was Thursday morning, July 3, 2008. Then again today.

These smack downs simply were of a different character than anything seen thus far since May 19, 2008. They were sudden and rapid, and had all the feel of a cat toying with a mouse once they were complete.

So, let's just see what happens. Having heavy Put-side exposure appears fortuitous right now...

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Anonymous said...

Thank you for your insights.