Blowing Up the Bubble of Pessimism ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Blowing Up the Bubble of Pessimism

It sure looks like selling interest driving the market lower increasingly is forcing the long side to step up...


That's one way to read volume these past couple months.

Today appeared much the same bear game...

OEX 1-min

... and looks to be forcing the long side to step up once again.

So far, many divergences hold. Check out Advances-Declines and McClellan Oscillators. Yet so much technically remains decidedly negative, too. Any letup in support — or increased selling urgency — could turn devastating in a heartbeat.

Straight ahead, challenges — power plays — against whatever interests are supporting March 2009 lows seem likely to increase. Why not. The Fed is in disarray and its needed liquidity cannot last forever.

Terranova tells us we're in a "bubble of pessimism." Bzzzz. Wrong.

Over at Barry Ritholz's Big Picture blog you should read his post of a day ago on the market's decidedly negative sentiment. This is fine accompaniment to my thoughts Friday on AAII bullish sentiment presently rivaling lows recorded at March '09 bottom.

Ask yourself this...

When "fewer than 29 percent of ratings for stocks covered by brokerages worldwide are 'buys,'" from where will support come should conditions suddenly become vulnerable to panic?

Oh, that's right ... there's nothing to worry about. The "bubble of pessimism" is about to burst because convincing a jobless man the lost decade is over is subject to the same magic bringing belief ... and, more importantly, money ... as climate change.

Fast Money
* * * * *

© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.

There's an easy way to boost your investment discipline...

Get Real-Time Trade Notification!