Jesus H. Christ, Give Me a Sign! ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Monday, December 08, 2008

Jesus H. Christ, Give Me a Sign!


Then the Pharisees and Sadducees came, and testing Him asked that He would show them a sign from heaven. He answered and said to them, "When it is evening you say, 'It will be fair weather for the sky is red' and in the morning , 'It will be foul weather today, for the sky is red and threatening.' Hypocrites! You know how to discern the face of the sky, but you cannot discern the signs of the times."

Holy Volatility! They still cannot discern the signs of the times...


$VIX

Red skies at night: sailor's delight... So, why the rain gear, Mr. VIX? It has been said...
The kingdom of heaven is like a certain king who arranged a marriage for his son, and sent out his servants to call those who were invited to the wedding; and they were not willing to come.
What fear we find! And this in the face of a feast whose main course has yet to be served...


$NYAD

Despite today's charge higher, the best still awaits. If the market's late-November advance was but the initial lift off bottom, then the boost phase should see the NYSE Advance-Decline Differential widen. It is as simple as that.

Doubt abounds ... and this fact I find most encouraging. Yet this is not to suggest it will be all clear sailing from here. In fact, just as fast as the market looks to advance, the subsequent trade could confound many a daytime book talker, and challenge evening hosts to make the game something more than an exercise in futility.

Yes, bottom likely is in (if you did not see "The q Ratio ... Bullish Technicals ... and Near-Term Resistance," then you might want to check it out). Yet just how strength might be displayed during the market's anticipated "counter-trend rally" remains very much a mystery.

On one hand, it's easy imagining November's bottom might not be challenged for months to come. On the other hand, however, let's keep an open mind. Near-term resistance is not to be ignored. There must be plenty of longs in a capital-starved world just hopping to get out even...




Fast Money
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© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


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5 comments:

Anonymous said...

You're welcome to post your loopy thoughts on The Big Picture. Dude, get ovah yourself. You loved Iraq then - you love it now. Only thing is you like others doing the heavy lifting so you can "trade" (lol) - B

S said...

interesting blog. compelling. I read your trippy comment on Mark Joyners blog and I had to come by and see what you're up to.

TC said...

Thanks "S." Enjoy!

"B" ... not sure I'm clear on the Iraq thing. Never been there. Love the men and women of the military. I generally find careerists among the most eloquent, thoughtful, dignified Americans as one could ever hope to call fellow citizens.

It's the politics devoid of principle I take some issue with. But only a little.

Which is a matter certainly touching upon things financial...

With over 100-1 opposing the bailout, I find myself in a situation affording the elevation of principle in such a way as connects our day with days of old when noble men of great intellect seized their place in history, distinguishing themselves from men who wouldn't know a fascist from a fudgsicle. And therein lies the diversity of the American warrior I suppose. Some are called to foreign lands, while others believe the pen is mightier than the sword.

You may find me "loopy." But is this a fault of mine or of someone devoid of principle well-rooted in the American tradition?

Anonymous said...

I am still kicking myself for missing the golden opportunity this recent decline presented. The monetary score trading stock index options could have been HUGE. I regret not perceiving the very conditions conducive to low-risk options play. Every time I look back to September I shake my head in disgust over not even seeing the possibility the market might collapse. It was all right there!

TC said...

Yet I was not long stocks. Rather I was parked in a safe money market fund ... after having been in short ETFs from late-May thru September 17th. And now? Look out above.