Counting Down to Thud ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Friday, October 29, 2010

Counting Down to Thud

(Any confusion in my view tonight is because I cannot for the life of me figure out what interest has al Qaeda in sewing up Rahm Emanuel's bid to become mayor of Chicago?)

Continuing on yesterday's "fifth wave failure ending wave c" theme...

OEX 5-min

Today was all zen with this possibility.

Technically speaking, relative strength ... after registering a credible, positive divergence at Wednesday's bottom ... is both in balance and behaving positively in a manner typical when first and second waves unfold. Being a "rising wedge" is thought forming, its wave v will subdivide in three waves (rather than five waves, as is typical of all other Elliott Wave "impulse waves"). So, the first and second of these might have already unfolded (off wave iv bottom ... which, itself, could have ended at those several points noted above). As you can see, too, relative strength thus far in wave v falls short of that in wave iii, which, itself, fell short of wave i best. So, this underlying measure confirms a "rising wedge" (whose appearance at the conclusion of a move traveling "too far, too fast," indeed, conforms with the Elliott Wave Principle's description of this "special" wave form).

One last [light] lift higher and an a-b-c corrective wave off late-June bottom is done. Then, great pressure and a thud.


Yep, it appears we are at the doorstep of great pressure, indeed. This circumstance goes some way toward confirming my wave count, as well.

I am hearing considerable interest among money managers appearing on CNBC that, a pullback will offer a good opportunity to press long positions, and increase exposure to the stock market. This sounds like a favorable climate for unleashing the first and second waves of five frightful waves down upcoming.

Fast Money
* * * * *

© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.

There's an easy way to boost your investment discipline...

Get Real-Time Trade Notification!