One thing certain is VIX momentum (see bottom panel) turning positive consistently has coincided with weakness in the market's post-March '09 bottom, counter-trend rally period. Considering how low VIX presently is, and this in the face of a euro-zone very much appearing on the verge of imploding, how central banks already "all in" can possibly coax an even deeper degree of complacency among equity bulls is for trapped weak hands to prove at a moment when their apparent willingness and/or capacity to add to their stakes has long been conclusively revealed challenged (this being the story told by diminishing volume over the entire duration of the market's counter-trend rally off March '09 bottom).
Now, although the current state of the Volatility Index by no means assures the market is on course for a trip to heartbreak hotel, all things considered the odds appear anything but slim. Further raising prospect for a vicious October is the Fibonacci-based cyclical curiosity I have indicated above, each instance connecting market bottoms to subsequent volatility peaks. So, it looks like the month of October might bring flight to a bat out of hell...
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