Trump on a Mushroom Cloud? ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Friday, September 04, 2015

Trump on a Mushroom Cloud?

What's this? Another Ben Franklin sighting?

Trump's vow not to run a third party campaign should he fail to gain the Republican Party nomination for president of the United States is interesting.

BANG! Just like that. We have confirmation turmoil and chaos is not such a far-fetched prospect in a venture to grease the wheels for the only candidate with proven skills needed to steal the last shred of goodwill remaining from a party (and quite possibly a republic) at whose apex is Abraham Lincoln. This, evidently, is the plan, with Trump set free yesterday to reveal the intention of his backers.

Shall we assume these only dabble in the stock market? Yes, let's.

As I see it, Trump has benefactors with deep pockets, and he is the chosen chump to take over a party whose goodwill obviously is spent. To my knowledge he didn't offend anyone making his pledge yesterday, so mission accomplished.

Now about that market...

The first five waves down to hell are completed. The 5th of these five was a so-called "failure." So, a corrective wave to these initial five waves down might see the market holding up a few days. My particular Elliott wave view sees the first part of this corrective wave unfolding at the start of Wednesday's trading and lasting into Thursday's peak.

Which is not to suggest the market's further lurch lower couldn't possibly be imminent. I wouldn't be surprised if Tuesday coming delivers even more volatility than the past two weeks have. The market's correction of its initial stumble whose bulk hit ground zero on August 24th might in fact be over for all I know.

Which possibility brings this warning...

Pay no mind to what appear deeply oversold technical measures. Occurring so early in a decline whose lead up was the poster child for "choking on garbage", it is little surprise conditions have turned so quickly negative and are reaching what is fairly called a "notable extreme."

In other words, yesterday's "extreme" very well could be today's "you ain't seen nothin' yet."

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© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

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