Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Confetti Fed Says More Bankrupt Better Than Less

I did say the other day there's no point harping on promoters of hopeless causes. So, that will do it today for the Confetti Fed. (Still, since August 15th, 1971 a more bankrupt Fed has been the decided trend to be sure.)

Remember 1999 and the "new era" in tech? Are we about to see a repeat performance?



This, of course, is a different NASDAQ perspective than was presented here last week. Now, before we get carried away in any prospective melt-up here, rather than a 1999 repeat performance, it is possible wave 3 of (c) is but one more bump higher off June low before reaching its completion. In other words, wave 3 might be largely formed already.

NASDAQ's new 52-week high-low differential is one technical measure we might interpret as substantiating this probability. Its best reading coinciding with NASDAQ's advance since mid-November 2012 was in early July (right when a presumed wave iii of 3 was peaking). That best, too, remained but a handful of NASDAQ-listed issues shy of the very best reading registered by NASDAQ's new 52-week high-low differential since March '09 bottom, which came in April 2010. Yet shy it was, and this speaks volumes about the overall market's underlying weakness four years into an overdose on Confetti candy. The odds of a melt-up at this point, a la 1999, seem rather slight in fact. The degree to which NASDAQ's high-low differential has come in since early-July certainly supports this conclusion.

Still, seeing the manner in which wave v of 1 extended, we might look here for wave v of 3 to do the same, at least to some degree. The question is whether in the process NASDAQ's RSI (top panel) and MACD (bottom) will best their respective May peaks. We have reason to suspect they won't.




It's a tough sell claiming NASDAQ is displaying such notably positive technical character as to suggest the long-term trend line it broke in '08 is about to be decidedly penetrated to the upside after having consistently offered resistance ever since. We might rather look to NASDAQ's choke on trend line resistance during the first half of 2011 for what's likely in store over coming weeks, this leading up to a hard turn south, one quite possibly of historic dimension.

We'll be keeping a close eye on NASDAQ's underlying technical state as it completes wave 3 of (c) over coming days and forms wave 4 of (c) throughout some part, if not the remainder, of August. Simply put, we're looking for confirmation NASDAQ's July peak is one from which underlying technical weakness increases. This we expect while NASDAQ more or less holds its ground during the month of August overall. We might not be in possession of the technical confirmation we're looking for (i.e. wave 4 versus wave 2 technical deterioration) until very late in the month.

Hmmm, come to think of it, we might find NASDAQ finishing August on its low and slightly lower than it closed out July today. Were a negative monthly reversal to happen in the process of NASDAQ's Composite Index forming wave 4 of (c) over the course of August, heightened would be possibility wave 5 of (c) proves a so-called "5th wave failure" (i.e. fails to rise above [yet to be completed] wave 3 of (c)).

Obviously, time will tell. For now let's assume the bulk of July's gains are not going to be given back in August, and NASDAQ's advance since mid-November 2012 remains in progress. First glances per immediate prospects hint NASDAQ might be poised to melt up. A closer look under the covers, though, raises probability 2013 will not deliver a 1999 repeat. NASDAQ looks more 2011 here.


Word on the Street
* * * * *
© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


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Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Not Greek To Me!

"The first necessity is to stabilize the patient, who is on the verge of collapse. This is not about stimulus, it’s not about returning to growth, or returning to full employment, this is about preventing a disaster which will lead to the breakup of the Euro Zone and the European Union, and will lead in that direction in my view quite soon if nothing is done. So that’s what I’ve been talking about over the last month.

"My thoughts on this were very much crystallized by the visit to Greece after the trip to Croatia. The question is, what’s the evidence?

"Okay, here’s some evidence. The Greek government failed to sell its gas monopoly to Gazprom for a very modest sum because Gazprom’s analysts believe, accurately, that they could not trust the forecast of income from the gas monopoly. And did I mention that this is a gas monopoly? We are talking here about a reasonable projection on the part of a competent firm that the economy underpinning the revenue stream of the gas monopoly is failing. Right? It doesn’t take much if we ask ourselves, on what basis does a rational government sell a gas monopoly for cash? The only reasonable answer is: When it needs cash immediately and does not expect to survive for very long, because a gas monopoly is a revenue stream that goes on forever unless you sell it, in which case it goes away. It’s just crystal clear what the situation is from the eyes of the government of Greece at the present time.

"Now when they fail to sell the gas monopoly, then on six hours’ notice with no cabinet discussion and no parliamentary debate and no vote, they shut the state radio and television, ostensibly to save 200 to 250 million euros over the course of a year in order to satisfy an arbitrary demand for that amount from the troika, and to show how tough and resolute they were.

"Well, the Greek people said, no, that’s enough. That’s enough. You can put up with a lot of privation, but you cannot put up with a direct attack on the one – however flawed – institution of public discourse that the country actually has. You can’t do it, so the journalists took over the buildings, the trade unions kept the power on, and the crowds went outside to protect them. It was fantastic.

"But it was something that really tells you you’re not far away from the brink. And there are more things that can and will happen over time, but you’re not far away from having a confrontation that will lead to a real, let’s say, breaking point. And, of course, we’ve already seen the political repercussions in the sense that the one of the coalition partners left the government, leaving it with a majority of three. And it does not take much for a majority of three to lead to new elections."

James Galbraith "On Social Breakdown and Financial Stress in Europe"
Alrighty then. This interview contained a nice plug for Greece's pro-EMU Syriza, too: a political force representing a "threat" we might suppose much like that leading to the recent demise of an imperialist-serving, nation-wrecking, warmongering Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. In other words, Team Fraud finds itself increasingly challenged abroad, as well as at home.

Open season on who will be the next Fed Caesar certainly reveals this in the person of Larry Summers. Much like circumstance surrounding failure to sell Greece's gas monopoly, the mere suggestion that, Larry Summers be the next Fed chairman rather exposes just how close to chaotic collapse the Federal Reserve System is. That it needs at its head a galling creep whose sheer arrogance will be enough to subdue resistance to perma-bailout of hopelessly insolvent casinos masquerading as "banks" at the very least exposes today's renewed chatter over Fed "tapering" as raising to a boil panic over rising interest rates. Indeed, the pressure is so intense we hear of a decreasing supply of U.S. Treasuries on account of improving tax receipts. Trouble is, though, something has to give. The pigs need an ever increasing supply of investment grade debt to paper over the mountain of trash this ever increasing debt supports. Without it, the debt and the garbage it sustains implodes. Beware, then, the false flag venturing provocations leading to the big war...


Word on the Street
* * * * *
© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


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Monday, July 29, 2013

The Dirty on Chuck's 30

We're gonna sharpen our focus on Chuck's 30 tonight. Friday's bigger picture at weekly intervals here turns to anticipating a significant, unexpected drubbing  in days, and possibly a scary dip over coming hours to boot...



5 waves forming wave (c) up from mid-November 2012—these prospectively completing a counter-trend rally off March '09 bottom—find typical technical confirmation during formation of each wave (c) component labeled above. Technical dynamism we see displayed during wave 3, and deterioration during wave 4 substantiate simple rules underlying the Elliott Wave Principle. We can reasonably assume wave 4 completed in June, too. Then again, this might prove untrue. Wave 4 of (c) might still be forming with a downside eying Chuck's 30 dipping to its 200-day moving average, and stat.

Assuming wave 4 of (c) completed in June, we could be in front of a pleasant summer for Western European players and their London-New York precious gem merchants. August could be bliss even to ... what is it ... Dow 16,500-17,000: a 5-wave Elliott channel's upper parallel.

Subsequently, then, imagine a September blitzkrieg seeking concessions—pain—in support of the euro, doing this in the heat of the final weeks leading to German national elections. Liquid swindle is safely assumed greased and ready for a swoon, possibly one of considerable consequence, too, even turning 2013 negative--sinking Chuck's 30 into the range of its wave (b) in a hurry, and this but forming wave (1) of C, or some other Elliott-based possibility should disaster be averted, as seems likely right now, doesn't it?

Maybe it shouldn't. Were wave 4 of (c) uncompleted, leaving open possibility Chuck's 30 sinks to its 200-day moving average here, bringing it right into the range of its "4th wave of one lesser degree" in fact (i.e. wave iv of 3), thus meeting an Elliott "guideline," and then what follows fails to carry Chuck's 30 above its May peak—a so-called "5th wave failure"—well, this would set up nicely for a heaping helping of volatility. Maybe a hint of euro-swindle is imminent. Maybe a misdirect of some sort. Maybe nothing upsets August. Still, September should prove challenging, if not extraordinarily so.


Word on the Street
* * * * *
© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


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Friday, July 26, 2013

Never More Vulnerable to Chaos

It's safe to say the U.S. stock market is priced to perfection. It's also safe to say that, in my entire fifty-four years of life the financial and economic backdrop invariably driving the U.S. stock market is the ugliest it has ever been. Thus, is reasonable notion this market is "priced to fantasy" and vulnerable to chaotic volatility.

The one major error of my analysis over the past five years has been under-appreciating both the acuteness of this vulnerability and measures that would be taken to extend a fantasy whose origins, really, date back to August 15, 1971. This, of course, was the date Nixon ended the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates and, much like the repeal of Glass-Steagall in 1999, was predated by circumstance inevitably leading to that day's "climax" whose subsequent consequence gave birth to an "economy" driven by hyperinflationary breakdown, the likes of which Glass-Steagall's repeal now assures the 1923 Weimar experience will become our own in due time, unless we come to our better senses (as it appears some in Congress are).

Now, let's be clear. The market's vulnerability to chaotic volatility is not an unintended consequence of an otherwise noble intention. Rather it is a feature of a framework venturing to destroy the notion of sovereign nation states right up to the United States itself (most emphatically!). This conclusion is not some hair-brained paranoia. There's abundant evidence smack dab in front of the world's face for anyone with eyes to see. Clearly, then, is blindness prerequisite to being one among the frightfully clueless surrounding us today.

We should consider here what little it would take to reverse today's vulnerability. First, stop listening to mentally challenged "authority." Anything those throughout contemporary society in leadership positions say or do playing to blindness simply deserves no attention. The blind leading the blind into a ditch is no threat, really, nor much of a concern, either. Thus, does the mainstream media find itself possessed by a vexing gnat infestation. How many consider their distracting work prima facie relevant to truth's capture! We are among but few who recognize this sad reality. With this, though, comes opportunity to do good.

Critical to subduing today's vulnerability is a will to break the London-New York Axis of Fraud. This in action requires practical policy measures, as well as elevation of every imperative seeking advancement of scientific discovery and innovation, these serving to further substantiate spiritual truths our generation has power to manifest in keeping with mankind's growing awareness evolving over the course of millennia bringing humanity to more intimately fathom the fullness of its "place" possessing dominion over all creation.

Not necessarily wishing to wax philosophical here, change uplifting truth is inescapable and does not require calamity to precipitate its coming into being. Indeed, we might carry this conclusion to a level supposing that, wherever calamity is purposely being fostered, a force alien to truth likely is at work. We would be blind, ourselves, not to recognize mankind's capacity to suppress truth, and we would be cowards not to counter this using every facility at our disposal.

If we agree our world's present vulnerability to chaotic volatility is preordained and intended—the evidence is just overwhelming(!)—then we likewise recognize how blind sophists over the past five years have only acted to further sustain a liquid swindle that, in fact has been ongoing for several decades now. As this arrangement employs a classic, negative feedback loop destined to break confidence in its efficacy with ever greater effect over the course of its evolution—again, the evidence is just overwhelming(!)—we can be virtually certain our outlook anticipating major U.S. stock indexes falling back to levels last seen in the 1987-1994 period possesses overwhelming supporting evidence, the likes of which a preponderance of blind suckers otherwise are inclined to ignore.

Now, here's how this condition—this state of affairs—appears "natural" (i.e. abides the "Laws of Nature"). Any given tree over the course of a season will produce thousands upon thousands of seeds, yet but one of these will be extraordinarily lucky to grow into the likeness of the tree that produced it. Thus, the view we have here regarding our current state places us one among the trees in fact. In other words we are inclined to lead for the sake of truth, that it be both exposed and asserted to form a more lawful arrangement—one driven by an overwhelmingly compassionate intention, which too is a state entirely harmonious with nature itself. That "the harvest is plentiful, but the laborers are few" is not lamentation. Rather it is recognition of opportunity assigned to the chosen few.



We've gone over a number of alternate Elliott wave counts over recent months, of which the one indicated above is in keeping. The point to consider in weighing its credibility is the aforementioned vulnerability to chaotic volatility built in to today's underlying circumstance.

We see the Dow Jones Industrials Average's weekly momentum (see MACD) in May peaked just shy of its best reading of the past forty years (this registering in 1999), and now is slowly fading, negatively diverging coincident with manipulation of a badly broken price discovery mechanism driving the index to a new record high over the past month. Should we not rather suppose the former momentum peak of 1999 will remain intact on account of it occurring at a time when underlying circumstance was considerably less vulnerable? Should we not more so suspect nefarious objectives culminating in an environment cultivating increasing vulnerability would be masked in trappings making today's well-groomed sophists—still garnering respect (especially the Fed)—appear credible, that tomorrow these might be entirely discredited and more easily pushed aside? Should we not, indeed, fear the complete destruction of equities on account of the fact risk much higher up in the capital structure is being willfully compounded, all the while being aggressively mispriced?

These questions answered in the affirmative hasten recollection of recent incidents when increasing, underlying vulnerability was unavoidably exploited. Again and again we see the mask coming off, yet the true face of what's going on remains mysterious to most. Almost overnight some new crisis develops out of the blue (or so it seems anyway) and it's off to the graveyard. Lo and behold, we presently find considerable technical basis for projecting another burial. We are hard pressed, too, to fathom a time when the majority were so decidedly sanguine in spite of persistent problems whose resolution continues to defy authorities in whom much unwarranted faith otherwise is being placed. Thus, we very well could be at a terminal tipping point from which most today simply will not recover, if theirs is fortune even to survive at all.

Detroit's bankruptcy reveals Team Fraud's policy remains driven to fleecing savings in order to increase leverage. The back door leading to this end was sealed shut in 2008, and so confidence required to continue pretending expanding debt burdens can be serviced without compromising accumulated wealth has gone the way of the dinosaur. So, now the front door alone is available to further extort accumulated wealth in an effort to continue pretending the massive mountain of debt accumulated over the past several decades is legitimate. Eventually, though, this entryway, too, will be sealed. Then, the only remaining alternative available to imperialist scam artists will be a furious wealth burial in a hyperinflationary flood silencing sophists who today claim purchasing power is under no threat whatsoever. Between now and then we can look forward to criminal extortion exploiting today's deep-seeded vulnerability precipitating chaotic volatility to the end of bringing garbage at every level of the capital structure to its knees...


Word on the Street
* * * * *
© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


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Thursday, July 25, 2013

"Shovel Ready" [For Burial]

Well, I can't tell you what it's gonna be that knocks this garbage out of the stratosphere. However, I can tell you what it's not gonna be. It's not gonna be pretty.



Well-dressed sanitation engineers of the 21st century—specializing in the disposal of livelihoods and, indeed, lives themselves—although likely giving up hope on much needed discovery of benevolent life on Mars willing to backstop lenders of last resort here on earth, are hanging tough in the absence of major hurricanes over the past couple years—this good fortune evidently leaving FEMA with plenty of body bags which to remove the dead without causing a sensation.

However, here and now, it's everyone "all in" and nowhere to go but the dump. This particular brand of trash—the crème de la crème—and the garbage it lords over had better hope the president's pitch to the U.S. middle class yesterday ventures a furious culling of savings parked in short-term Treasuries, and fast.

Otherwise, it's time for a new "shovel ready" project. This one, though, rather than digging out the country, instead looks to bury it in morass. Detroit's a bad sign (and more importantly, the name of the window the president need call the nation's servant, Confetti, and tell him to open, ordering he wait for Congress for instructions on how many billions he should pour forth to retool Detroit for its planned, 21st century role as "the new engine of 'merica")...


Word on the Street
* * * * *
© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


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Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Kiss of Death Still Dancing Together

"If we don't have a growing, thriving middle class, then we won't have the resources to solve a lot of these problems. We won't have the optimist--the sense of unity--we need to solve all these ... issues. Now in this effort I will look to work with Republicans, as well as Democrats, wherever I can. "... And I sincerely believe there are members of both parties who understand this moment--understand what's at stake--and I will welcome ideas from anybody, across the political spectrum. But, I will not allow gridlock, or inaction or willful indifference to get in our way. That means whatever executive authority I have to help the middle class, I'll use it. Where I can't act on my own and Congress isn't cooperating, I'll pick up the phone, I'll call CEOs, I'll call philanthropists, I'll call college presidents, I'll call labor leaders, I'll call anybody who can help and enlist them in our efforts."
President Barack Obama (Knox College, Galesburg, IL, 7/24/2013)

[Ghostbusters theme song playing in my head...]

Who you gonna call?

Con-fetti!

There you go Detroit. Get 'er done.

Of course, "wind, solar and natural gas" will not do. It has to be hydrogen. The president's remarks about  understanding the moment and "what's at stake" at least suggests, though, that beyond the rhetoric there's an inkling of recognition the United States of Make Work and Money Grab is on the verge of collapse. His claim of having "saved the auto industry," however, clearly is a lemon being squeezed so hard the pits are squeaking in Detroit. Its bankruptcy must be stopped. The feet of the incompetent leading the Fed need be put to the fire demanding proof Wall Street is not favored over Main Street. Confetti's claim to this effect last week before the House Financial Services Committee still rubs middle America the wrong way. How quickly, too, the claim was proven a bald faced lie! In only a mere matter of hours following its utterance was Detroit's bankruptcy filed. Quite the slap in the face.



It's not clear whether those among truly bankrupt enterprises in fact have juice enough to push up garbage at the bottom of the capital structure any further. Although a technical tour still supports the possibility, an imminent trip south sinking the likes of the S&P 500 to its 200-day moving average finds a floundering U.S. bond market and dollar—the kiss of death dancing together(!)—suggesting "bombs away!"


Word on the Street
* * * * *
© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


There's an easy way to boost your investment discipline...

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Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Detroit! Occupy the Fed Already...

Who else thinks the situation surrounding the bankruptcy of Detroit is making for one of the most dynamic political climates anyone living has ever seen? Certainly, the U.S. ruling class' utter subversion of humanist principle eloquently laid forth in the U.S. Constitution's preamble is being put on full display from Lansing to Washington, not to mention coast-to-coast and all across the globe. Then again, politics being a dirty business makes one wonder, too, whether all things are not what they seem.

Oddly enough we see escalating the push for direct U.S. intervention in Syria on behalf of the same imperialist crew wrecking Detroit. Well, if this does not vividly reveal just how bankrupt Wall Street really is right now, then nothing ever could. Plainly, as in obviously, just open your eyes, idiot, if Wall Street's chain reaction collapse were not imminently threatening, then could we not reasonably suppose a far less contentious path than currently is being taken would be followed instead?

Now, I don't intend to incite a heaping helping of sophistry from the far-out-there, but we're probably about to receive a boatload nevertheless, and most of it likely will be rather beyond belief, as in all things are not what they seem. So, maybe we should take Senator John McCain's warmongering with a grain of salt. After all, he is one of four bi-partisan co-sponsors on the second Glass-Steagall bill to be submitted in the U.S. Senate this year. Last I heard, too, the Republican party still considers al Qaeda an enemy of the United States, and their being lured into Syria only to be smashed hardly seems a bone any U.S. politician dare pick by directing grave threats against Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. 

Still, just how important is a coalescence of intention venturing to uphold republican principles needed to reverse the plunge into the abyss their manifestation has taken in the U.S. since November 22, 1963 cannot be stressed enough. Congress' upcoming summer recess need be a hotbed of resistance to imposed bankruptcy and contrived war, and this centering on the ultimate goal demanding the Fed be nationalized, that the work of the American people in world-class economic leadership commence with a commitment to recognize this is the 21st century and not the 12th (in other words, a Fed window financing the build out of wind mills will not do!). This convergence of the Detroit bankruptcy and the call for war against Syria really is a gift, and we can reasonably predict that the mass strike about to hit could make 2010's look like a walk in the park.

Detroit's plight in all probability is keenly sensed an imminent threat in many other cities across the U.S., as well. Likewise, it's a good bet the Syrian Arab Army, Hezbollah, and the Iranian Republican Guard recognize a 70% opposition in the U.S. to war against Syria is no cause for a Pearl Harbor attack, thereby making the sale of any such thing following a false flag an exceedingly challenging task. Then too, we would be remiss to forget desperate times call for desperate measures and, again, these obviously are desperate times.

For the record violence is best resisted at all costs. Indeed, this foundational intention earned my respect for "Occupy Wall Street." Better to show one's enemy a face-saving way out. Here "Occupy" failed miserably, while I have tried to remain faithful. A good idea now is Occupy the Fed demanding copious credit for the build out of the hydrogen economy and for student loans, as well as a 1% Wall Street Sales Tax to stabilize municipal debt and alleviate the financial burden today's utter bankruptcy is placing on the social safety net. Seal the deal with passage of Glass-Steagall (phased in once Fed credit has taken firm root) and it's time to go home. Just Occupy the Fed. Every civic leader whose constituents are threatened with being robbed in broad daylight (a la Cyprus) will find fertile ground leading to tranquility directing a surely growing rage in this direction. No need to loot businesses, burn buildings, wax fascists, or lynch Uncle Toms. Just Occupy the Fed and insist face-saving demands I have been advocating here are met. Beware provocations! These are bound to occur in a climate of desperation. This bit of Matthew will serve all well, notwithstanding violent challenges now likely to arise over coming weeks and months.

It sure looks like summer could turn hot, hot, hot, so keep your cool no matter how insurmountable odds of success appear. The critical sickness exposed in Detroit's bankruptcy is but the parasitical nature of today's so-called economy. In other words, "it's the derivatives, stupid!" Yet it's really not hard to imagine how this disease can be overcome with little or no disruption. The cure begins with the Fed's seizure to be sure. From there the slow suffocation—mercy killing—of the grossly imbalanced, dominating role derivatives play in today's banking business can be managed. Fed credit directed toward revitalizing the U.S. physical economy to a state-or-the-art, 21st century standard, I believe, could work wonders. Of course, this commitment entails a diversity of effect much like what is required in times of war. Make no mistake, though, the fight for republic is on. By nationalizing the Fed there's a fighting chance to keep it, and at the same time keep guns silent.

Now, liquidity Confetti is flooding into hopelessly insolvent banks the Fed supposedly regulates undeniably facilitates an apparent, broader targeting of municipalities with the aim of swindling pensioners. To counter this a 1% Wall Street Sales Tax would prove indispensable. As fate would have it, there is movement to form a "Tax Wall Street" national political party originating in the 2013 race for New York City mayor. Pressure demanding concrete. positive change clearly is growing. Kudos to NYC mayoral candidate Randy Credico for leading the charge.

Team Fraud's move to send the city of Detroit though bankruptcy, then, rather than a case of bad timing, all the more appears the face of desperation. Further substantiating this probability was today's Senate Banking Subcommittee hearing titled, "Examining Financial Holding Companies: Should Banks Control Power Plants, Warehouses, and Oil Refineries?" A very informative, fact-finding exercise forming the basis for moving Glass-Steagall forward. There's no escaping reality that, advancing is an attack on the banking system's leverage over a collapsing physical economy, that inevitable chaos the demise of the post-Bretton Woods hyperinflationary free-for-all continues accelerating toward be checked, and its pending, destructive effect be minimized.

This end, of course, heightens the need for marshaling productive credit. One of the issues discussed during today's Senate Banking Subcommittee hearing was how today's deeply intertwined financial and physical economy serves to minimize the cost of capital. Financial holding companies with access to the Fed's discount window possess a decided advantage here, and so with their control over tangible physical assets comes a positive benefit. Yet it remains a fact certain basic physical assets provide a direct benefit to all. Food and energy quickly come to mind here. So, agreement on the dividing line separating benefits accrued to shareholders of bank holding companies and society at large need be reached. Regulatory changes going back to the 1960s need be revisited, while provision of cheap credit to enterprises providing a direct benefit to everyone might best be provided by the Fed, thereby eliminating any middleman.

Obviously, these are somewhat complex issues prime for considerable obfuscation, while their existing amidst a very fragile economic and social climate only complicates things further. On one hand we might agree we never should have let things get this far. On the other hand we can see that, because a desperate situation has evolved as a result, the opportunity to effect positive change is rather promising here. A shakeup dramatically altering the physical and financial landscape to the effect of elevating all humanity has become a more credible, practical possibility now. All reason to be pessimistic aside—likely increasing over the coming period—a renaissance raising values of every sort (material and spiritual) is closer at hand. It is this better possibility offering a positive way forward needing the loudest supportive voice while the world we have known inexorably falls to the wayside.

Tragedy sure to intervene in the interim no doubt is the cost of having let vulnerabilities get so far developed as they are. Yet born of these is opportunity to permanently reverse the tide and get on with the business of promoting all manner of productive enterprise creatively elevating mankind's dominion over nature. We should, then, more reliably defer to those many better possibilities as in fact abundantly exist no matter how dire things might likely become. Every intrigue an opportunity to counter, turning minds toward seizing the Fed, that it provide credit to finance a prosperous United States running at breathtaking escape speeds allowing it to break free from gravity today grounding it to a hellfire club. Seize the Fed, because it's a desperate measure that's both intelligent and honorably intended.




Word on the Street
* * * * *
© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


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Monday, July 22, 2013

NASDAQ Clarity on the Road To 300

Take a look at NASDAQ's cumulative advance-decline line. This supports a case for viewing NASDAQ's advance since mid-November 2012 as a work in progress. Not only that, but also a case supposing the final wave of an Elliott "zig-zag" up from March '09 bottom is in the process of forming.

Having challenged its March '09 low at NASDAQ's November 2012 bottom, the cumulative advance-decline line has been rising back toward its April 2010 peak. It's still well-short of that peak and over the long-term (i.e. since Y2k) NASDAQ's cumulative advance-decline line remains in what I have called a "death spiral." So, by no means does its recovery since November 2012 represent a positive turn of affairs. Rather, only fitting per NASDAQ's recovery off March '09 bottom, while still remaining very foreboding in the context of NASDAQ's more or less sideways trade since October 2002 (this coinciding with the NASDAQ Composite forming an Elliott "b" wave of an a-b-c corrective wave down from Y2k peak).

So, let's assume wave (c) [of B] higher is forming off NASDAQ's mid-November 2012 bottom and, once completed, will bring NASDAQ's advance since March '09 to its conclusion (as well as put the market prospectively on the threshold of collapse)...



Typical technical confirmation of the Elliott wave count indicated above is seen via both RSI (top panel) and MACD (bottom). A little more to go and wave 3 of (c) is complete.

By this view we are tentatively looking at the market's peak being reached in September.

So, that's my story and I'm sticking to it (as I have all along in fact, with NASDAQ's cumulative advance-decline line providing a great deal of substance backing a forecast projecting NASDAQ's upcoming swoon to ... drum roll ... 300 ... remember?).



Whoomp, there it is...


Word on the Street
* * * * *
© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


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Friday, July 19, 2013

Suckers in the Grips of Soulless Sophists

Can you imagine a United States with a population of 300+ million people whose main source of power was provided by animals? You can't, because sustaining such a population would be impossible were the agricultural economy driven by animal labor. Mankind's creativity alone has provided the means whereby today's world sustains over 7 billion souls.

Many are fond of claiming "finite resources" put an upper limit on the potential for continued geometric growth in both power generation and consumption, as well as population growth potential this harnessed power could support. Yet when one considers the power put out by the sun—a quantity mankind is nowhere near harnessing—and that there are countless billions of these celestial objects in our own galaxy, which, itself, is but one among countless billions of galaxies existing throughout the known universe, well, about the only thing we might readily recognize as "finite" is mankind's power of imagination. Truth is even given today's relatively primitive level of technological mastery, the world remains considerably underpopulated. There are no limits to growth, practically speaking.

Now, why is this fact not common knowledge, while consensus holds that the Fed has miraculously saved the world from suffering another Great Depression? Here's why: we are surrounded by suckers! Or, if you prefer, the walking dead. One of these, of course, is leading the Fed. With origins in an Ivy League chock full of soulless sophists—cool, calculating killers in fact—it is high time these dead be buried, as they positively are stinking up the American republic.

Between now and January the Ivy League need somehow save face, if at all possible. Another incompetent "economist" of the imperial monetarist sort simply will not do as Confetti's replacement. The U.S. rather needs, say, a leading plasma physicist with considerable knowledge of American history leading the Fed. Thus, when the new Fed chair appears before Congress to deliver the Fed's annual "Humphrey-Hawkins" testimony, the body politic can be intelligently guided in physical possibilities further offering to geometrically increase mankind's capacity to harness power in pursuit of limitless growth. This person should be able to profusely convince Congress there positively is no need to kill grandma and grandpa in order to save the nation's finances. He or she would understand the only thing Fed credit is good for is promoting mankind's greater mastery over nature. Any other use of Fed credit is an act of treason (thereby leaving Confetti with a 27 trillion count indictment to answer for).

I don't know how you feel, but I am tired of suckers who believe today's Fed is nobly intentioned. How so many witting dupes fail to see a United States (along with every other sovereign nation on the planet) being led straight into a trap by uniformly incompetent financial authorities simply is mystifying. Just how many more days remain before some nefarious intrigue precipitates a catharsis threatening collapse of the global dollar reserve system no one can say. Although only a reasonable guess is this possibility that, mere days remain until a systemically threatening crisis breaks into the open, an end culminating in chaos is just brimming with precedent. Indeed, the many prior instances of nefarious intrigue throughout American history, alone, hang the name "sucker" high above a frightfully clueless majority, some of whom possess impeccable credentials no less. I have said it here before and here will say it again: 2008 was the beginning of sorrows, not their end. The Fed's only success has been to condition the minds of a woefully clueless majority to blindly overlook the many grave risks threatening to bring down the trans-Atlantic banking system in an instant. Indeed, these risks are only the more fearsome now that lenders of last resort are "all in."



We can go all the way back to 2008 to find the market at considerable risk many more times than not whenever momentum of the CBOE Put/Call Ratio has come in to its current reading (see MACD, bottom panel). Apparently the bankrupt pricks finally hit up the Bank of Japan for juice needed to keep up appearances, at last sinking the put/call ratio below its 200-day moving average ... which we see still is rising in fact. So, we've got that going for us.

Obviously, we won't get excited about any negative market prospect until the CBOE Put/Call Ratio's momentum crosses back into the positive. This likely will happen in a mere matter of hours, as the market's advance off its June bottom is quite stretched by all technical accounts (finding several measures negatively diverging versus May peak, and so putting more feathers in our bearskin cap)...


Word on the Street
* * * * *
© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


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Thursday, July 18, 2013

Force Ruling Class to Nationalize the Fed!

Beyond the futile machinations of hopelessly bankrupt scam artists, earning our ire also are half truths being told about "expanding multiples" as rationale for owning garbage at the bottom of the capital structure. Never mentioned is debt being added to "pristine balance sheets" buying back shares to the effect of lending analysis on a "per share basis" power to spin tall tales. Of course, there's no reason to call anyone out because the Fed has power to hold down rates from now until the second coming of Jesus if need be (and this positively need be), or so everyone is being told anyway. Everyone, that is, but central banks dealing with capital flight leveling reserves faster than a tornado tears through a trailer park, who are being forced to sell prized, dollar denominated assets in response to private capital's exodus.

Meanwhile, the hapless Confetti believes his is power to export inflation ad infinitum. However, already is [emerging market] evidence this power is at grave risk of being vanquished. Let's just say Team Fraud is hard pressed to instill the Japanese kamikaze spirit everywhere it need be. Nevertheless, wherever the efficacy of suicide can be preached, the Ivy League academic is on the beat. Mush heads in the U.S. Congress evidently just can't get enough of Confetti's plan to kill the American republic, and most emphatically its citizenry.

We might ask why it is the American people tolerate the likes. Yet the truth of the matter is they don't. Their opposing stand against rampant corruption still being perpetuated by this Fed and the Congress animating it rather more or less remains harmonious with that registered in '08 when, by a 100-1 majority, American citizens voiced their strong opposition to the opening salvo of bailout initiatives swindled via TARP. This opposition without question remains intact.

For now we can overlook how swindle, as ruling class policy, is being cynically perpetuated via Dodd-Frank title II provision legislating bail-in. Current rage against rampant financial corruption rather rightly is directed at the Fed's selective accommodation. To wit, how is it Morgan Stanley's portfolio of mortgage backed garbage is bailed out whereas the City of Detroit is left twisting in the wind? The gall of Confetti to claim before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, July 17th, that Fed policy does not favor Wall Street over Main Street! OUTRAGEOUS!

It's not enough, though, the prick spits on Main St. He proposes trashing the U.S. Treasury with his policy advocating a 2% inflation rate. I'm sorry, but inflation in any form whatsoever is intolerable. It simply is incompetent, criminal policy and should be called out as such, if not by a captive Congress, then by private citizens with absolutely nothing to lose rejecting anything and everything legitimizing theft.

"How, Mr. Chairman, does this 2% inflation target venture supporting the U.S. dollar's exchange rate value? Who among foreign holders of U.S. Treasury debt is not likewise similarly encouraged to engage in the same 'beggar my neighbor' policy as the Fed is promoting here? Does the Fed not risk the U.S. dollar's collapse at some presently unforeseen threshold in the unfolding dynamic involving extraordinary central bank intervention in capital markets across the globe, this when some other nation, or group of nations in concert, finds wisdom resisting the Fed's "beggar my neighbor" policy? What part of present circumstance making today's financial environment still 'fragile,' as you describe it, does threat of increasing foreign revulsion of dollar-denominated financial assets whose purchasing power is purposely being depreciated by the Fed enter into the Fed's concerns, this as potentially impacts the U.S. dollar's exchange rate value in particular?"

The simple fact of the matter is, if the Fed is not acting to strengthen the U.S. dollar, then oft' leveled charges of the institution's unconstitutionality become entirely legitimate. If the central bank is not acting to strengthen the U.S. dollar, then it is promoting enslavement of the U.S. labor force and threatening the very solvency of the U.S. Treasury, as well. It's that simple, folks, and the incompetent Confetti need be called out.

Yet even better than ability to list problems is determination to force solutions. Nationalize the Fed, and direct it to invest in Main Street in such a way as effectively leverages the greatest asset any nation has: the creative, productive capacity of its people. That's the path to full employment, and if anyone in Congress begs to differ, then send them to work for the shareholders of scam artists promoting slave labor. Anyone in Congress acting to perpetuate the authority of the Federal Reserve as presently directed is promoting the same, and so, really, is nothing but a subversive. These, too, need be called out, and sent to work anywhere but the U.S. Congress.




Word on the Street
* * * * *
© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


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Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Technically Swindelicious

Let's return to an Elliott wave view applied to the NYSE Composite Index some weeks ago whose technical substantiation, most of all, made it compelling...



Five waves up from June 2012 bottom labeled above saw noteworthy technical strength coinciding with formation of wave iii of 3 last September (displaying typical 3rd wave "dynamism"), as well as typical technical deterioration, 4th wave versus 2nd, and 5th wave versus 3rd.  Following the wave v of 5 "channel throw-over" leading to May peak, the channel's upper parallel has come back in play and now $NYA is stalling as its bounce reaches right back up to it.

Certainly a decline sinking $NYA to within range of the 4th wave forming in the October-November 2012 period seems technically well-justified at this point. This represents more or less a minimal objective given a weakening technical setup--one likewise very well substantiating the above wave count off June 2012 bottom. Yet even this minimal objective presents something of a problem...



$NYA's uptrend line off March 2009 bottom would be broken should the index fall within range of its 4th wave of 5 waves up from June 2012 bottom. Not that this uptrend line break, in and of itself, should be regarded a big deal. However, the index's declining momentum registered at key peaks over the interim since March '09 might add negative weight to any upcoming, prospective break of the uptrend line. Thus, the added decline indicated above, suggesting a virtual retest of March '09 bottom over upcoming months.

The most critical line of support to be regarded in this prospective outlook connects 2010 and 2011 bottoms. Taking this line back to the 2008 period we might regard it something of a "do or die" marker. Another trip into the zone raising such imperative once again--exercising liquid swindle--very well could be in the making between now and early next year.

This "do or die" line finds commonality across all indexes. Its same, curious pertinence per the S&P 500 finds a precedent, too...



Now, here, a challenge of March '09 bottom might seem a stretch. Yet a decided break of the S&P 500's support at its 2010 and 2011 bottoms still might find similarity to its January 2008 break below a more positively inclined recovery line of support that formed off the S&P 500's March 2003 bottom.

A sub-1000 S&P 500 still appears a reasonable possibility. Subsequently, 3-5 years spent challenging upside resistance (that is today's support at 2010-2011 bottoms) might develop, while, ultimately, a trip lower to levels last seen in the 1987-1994 period still remains on the radar. This target could be reached sooner rather than later, no doubt. For now, let's assume later. Well enough a significant break over coming months is a technically well-substantiated possibility.

Again, weekly momentum (see MACD, bottom panel) has only begun to turn over,so underlying power (if that's what we might call it) to momentarily keep the market levitated here comes as no surprise, really. All the same, prospective attack on the euro-zone proceeds apace...


Word on the Street
* * * * *
© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


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Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Today in the Church of Holy Unproductive Financial Claims

She loves me. She loves me not. Will the Fed taper? Or will it never stop?

Rather than play distracting semantic games we need only ask what's the verdict so far? It is liquid swindle consolidating increasingly depreciated assets into fewer hands. This has been the way of it for a long time now—several decades in fact.

Oh sure, many more moments have been spent pretending the burden of parabolically increasing financial claims on a collapsing physical economy is not only sustainable, but somehow is conducive to increasing values assigned to these claims. Yet as long as collapse of physical economic output continues unabated, these claims are doomed to the fate of the Holland tulip mania. Rather than tulip bulbs, though, now we're dealing with unproductive credit. In recent former times this was manufactured through a shadow banking system employing an infinite multiplier, but now is more or less entirely accommodated through direct central bank intervention. All the while, nothing is being done to reverse the physical economy's collapse. This instead is being encouraged. Thus, if we consider the cost of an Ivy League education, we must conclude the price of insanity really is through the roof!

There's only one question Congress need ask Confetti this week: Are you insane, Mr. Chairman? If he answers in the negative, then it will be up to Congress to prove it by passing legislation directing the Fed to provide trillions of dollars of credit for the build out of the hydrogen economy, this at last venturing to reverse the physical economy's collapse. Resolution of our present day's woes are that simple and we should not forget it.

If literally forcing the Fed to meet its employment mandate does not happen, then we can look forward to the next round of swindle, likely targeting the EMU, and attendant, further collapse of the global physical economy. The crowd hailing "Europe" will either come around to embrace uniquely American, Hamiltonian ideas, this that prosperity those who back "Europe" claim they desire be concretely institutionalized, or Europe dies on the alter of the London-New York Axis of Fraud Church of Holy Unproductive Financial Claims. It's either reorganize the euro-zone and employ central banks to the task of issuing productive credit protected from today's mountain of unsustainable claims, or voluntarily submit to massive theft and those vile forms of political organization Venetians for centuries have been wont to impose on the continent, and, indeed, are venturing to impose on the United States itself.

Now, being that Confetti probably is scheduled for several hours to appear before Congress, the greater focus should turn to the immediately pressing matter of rising interest rates. Caesar cannot deny his every effort has ventured to pin these to the floor. Nor can he deny he presently is at grave risk of failing in this effort, both conceptually and materially (inviting the Fed's very insolvency). Confetti oversees a banking empire that, evidently is quite adept at enriching itself, but what is it doing to enrich the nation's physical output and wealth creating capacity? This is the fundamental question Confetti must be made to answer. Any smokescreen he throws up claiming the operations of a relatively lilliputian federal government (contrasted to the private sector) are to be assigned blame for rising rates will be easily beaten back with simple formulations of supply and demand.

"Mr. Chairman, is your quantitative easing policy not encouraging an increasing supply of both Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities, and must this increasing supply fundamentally be met by increasing demand in order for interest rates to remain in a downward trajectory?"

"Mr. Chairman, do you foresee a moment when your quantitative easing policy precipitates outright debt security revulsion on account of physically constrained demand that, effectively is being imposed by circumstance finding profound imbalance between [collapsing] physical output and [increasing] financial claims on that output?"

Only the dullest observer does not comprehend how a decades-running hyperinflationary policy presently finds the globe at the precipice of suffering a Weimar-like experience. Likewise, we have reached the moment when it becomes increasingly impossible to impose sacrifice without precipitating mass resistance, and so is more likely the moment we cross the threshold into Weimar-like hyperinflation. Thus, we can forget semantic games claiming "tapering" is even possible. It's either liquid swindle or hyperinflationary drowning per today's monetarist prescriptions originating from the Church of Holy Unproductive Financial Claims. These two choices, alone, are presented by bankrupt demagogues, like Confetti, in service of those who otherwise possess unholy, ulterior motives.

Better understanding fundamental reality, then, we have greater insight into mechanics likely driving upcoming trading in claims at the very bottom of the capital structure. For the time being it's liquid swindle in the driver's seat, and this in desperate attempt to stave off collapse of increasingly weighty claims much higher up in the capital structure. All eyes on Europe after the "American" animating liquid swindle, there and everywhere, has spoken...


Word on the Street
* * * * *
© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


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Monday, July 15, 2013

Foul Weather Still Threatening

It appears the market's bounce from late-June bottom is nearing its completion, setting up a significant decline continuing formation of an Elliott corrective wave unfolding off the market's May peak...



Twice we see the typical bump in NYSE advancers versus decliners preceding formation of a bottom. The first coincided with the "b" wave of the market's initial a-b-c down from May peak. These three waves, completing late-June, are seen forming the "a" wave of a larger Elliott corrective wave unfolding since May peak. The "b" wave of this larger Elliott corrective wave is seen forming off late-June bottom and finds the second bump in NYSE advancers versus decliners coinciding. Likewise, the ultimate peak of this "b" wave is being marked by a negative divergence in NYSE advancers versus decliners.

So, no change in the forecast here calling for more foul weather in garbage land. This is seen coinciding with a "c" wave down continuing formation of an Elliott corrective wave off May peak.

We are well-advised here, too, recalling index momentum (MACD) at weekly intervals, first being extended into May peak, and now turning over. Likewise an extraordinarily extended S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index at May peak now negatively diverging as the S&P 500 challenges its May peak. These measures suggest the market remains at risk of sinking well below its late-June bottom as the Elliott corrective wave forming since May peak continues to unfold.


Word on the Street
* * * * *
© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


There's an easy way to boost your investment discipline...

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Friday, July 12, 2013

On Course For Rendezvous With Liquid Swindle

Apparently it was Spinning Fantastic Tales Day on Wall Street. From the Neo-Commodore to Laz Squeakirnyi to Ace Acampora, Pit Detective, frolicking on the green of the living dead (a.k.a. Capo Confetti) was the common thread weaving tales of a permanent plateau of prosperity a la 1929. This, of course, is the consequence of a bloated diet feasting on wildly mispriced garbage whose real cost is fast approaching the day when it must be paid in blood everywhere, not just in select locales.

Yet time's passage since Obama's and Boehner's knifing of the Fed Caesar a few weeks back seems to beg reinterpretation. Does the thing euphemistically called a capital market now solely run on the utterances of its core's marquee actors? Were these two simply pitching softballs to save the dollar from the abyss Confetti's policy is hurling it toward? Another "Mission Accomplished" immediately following this political assault on the Fed Caesar, and the coast then was clear to trot out a Confetti promising prodigious pain medication whenever parabolically rising indebtedness is threatened with collapse?

Well, there's only bad news for believers in central bank claptrap. Confetti is woefully trapped. Furthermore, Wall Street has no more "implicit guarantee" which to leverage to the teeth and generate a wad of fees recklessly exploiting an infinite multiplier—all appropriately hedged, of course, by thinly capitalized insurers. There are only lenders of last resort "all in" and now to show for it rising rates—the kiss of death—pressing on a gargantuan mountain of debt hoisted upon a collapsing physical economy, no less. Just how cheap is the talk of giants—be their message genuine (albeit quite possibly misguided) or just plain deceptive—should become clearer from here on out. Get ready for chaos, because it is knocking at the door...



Knock knock.

Who's there?

QE

QE who?

Who cares! It was doomed from the first, if only by well-informed opinion, but following its second is well-founded evidence verily confirming that initial sense of the matter.

All things registering in the market's motion around the pivot marking the plunge into uncharted central bank activism—QE2—plainly present necessary volatility accompanying a well-liquified swindle. By all technical indications, extraordinary central bank actions wrapped in a heaping helping of sophistry solely intend to lull the crowd, and so, by design, too, we might furthermore conclude are predestined to lord over failure. Once again is this lesson evidently being set up by an ominous technical configuration raising probability of another market rendezvous with a well-liquified swindle.

Let's call this "controlled disintegration" still in action. as it has been since August 15, 1971 in particular. Indeed, Confetti gave his blessing for the next iteration the other day when he said, "If financial conditions were to tighten to the extent that they jeopardized the achievement of our inflation and employment objectives, then we would have to push back against that." In other words, go get 'em boys. Right on schedule, the Italian president hurried an unprecedented meeting with Ron Paul's hippie brother in a quest to deepen the euro-zone's swindle, we might reasonably suspect, particularly with Berlusconi now pointing toward the can.

We really should not forget the hippie has friends high up in trans-Atlantic financial circles, as did fascists of old in fact. Nor should we casually ignore astonishing pushback against these friends in high places whose Muslim Brotherhood swindle was just sent packing in Egypt. Times like these unexpected outcomes are bound to be a thriving trend. Of course, this is probability running on a two-way street, and so my advice is we push to nationalize the Fed in demand it finance the build out of the hydrogen economy. A friend of capitalism is a fascist foe because FDR and Lincoln before him proved the American System a prodigious provider of power to win wars, creating abundant capacity to sustain peace and fortify the promise of prosperity in the process. (Which, of course, hands down beats the permanent state of war and destruction—"controlled disintegration"—fascists and their imperialist sponsors are known to favor, still showing themselves unrequited demagogues of losing causes, from central banking to parliamentary government...)


Word on the Street
* * * * *
© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.


There's an easy way to boost your investment discipline...

Get Real-Time Trade Notification!