The Risk Averse Alert

We might suppose NASDARK's relatively steeper unraveling off Monday's peak is suggesting there probably will be no final surge to new heights preceding an objectively justified setback here, during whose unfolding at some point a taste of hell to be unleashed in full fury once the market's counter-trend rally off March '09 bottom finally completes could be served up. Technical measures across-the-board poise the market for an imminent bout of weakness, setting up a capital skim whose odds today's emerging market and U.S. Treasury softness appear to elevate.



Not really enamored with the possibility drawn above suggesting a "rising wedge" is forming in the NYSE Composite's wave (c) position, but there it is. Its further development would conform to our near-term outlook presented here via the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite over the past few days.

Another perfectly valid wave count could have wave (b) ending at early-June 2012 bottom, while still another at mid-November 2012 bottom.

Per the "rising wedge" possibility, as wave 4 of (c) unfolds straight ahead, we should see RSI (top panel) and MACD (bottom) sink below the green line marking each measure's low in formation of wave 2 of (c). As for the other $NYA wave count possibilities, while the above noted thresholds may or may not hold, their imminent challenge appears likely. The internal "stuffing" sustaining the market's levitation right now appears as thin as it did late-October 2012.

What do we make of the nation's first black president not delivering symbolic public demonstration of our generation's dedication to the cause Lincoln led, whose ultimate victory secured his right to become even U.S. President, which accomplished fact presented an extraordinarily unique opportunity to acknowledge his better place and the better place in principal of all black U.S. citizens via a major speech delivered in Gettysburg affirming the spirit of Lincoln's address on the 150th anniversary of its delivery, which historic commemoration President Obama passed up?

© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.

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