A Light on NASDARK Elliott Wave ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Thursday, October 31, 2013

A Light on NASDARK Elliott Wave

Some weeks ago we took into account how NASDAQ's cumulative advance-decline line, starting from November 2012, had strongly reversed its long-standing death spiral. Based on this we considered the proposition that, NASDAQ's Composite Index was forming wave (c) off mid-November 2012 bottom, which wave, too, then will complete NASDAQ's correction off its March 2009 bottom.

Assuming this wave (c) will unfold in an Elliott 5-wave fashion, consider the following wave count...

Me like this one. We see typical technical deterioration in formation of wave iv of 3 versus wave ii of 3. This both via RSI (top panel) and MACD (bottom). We see, as well, typical Elliott 3rd wave dynamism in peak technical strength being registered during formation of wave iii of 3.

Presently, negatively diverging RSI (top panel) we see registering since wave 3 peak in early August substantiates probability NASDAQ, near-term, will come under pressure.

The short and sweet is the outlook we have had for some weeks here remains intact. Across all major indexes a 4th wave is seen in the process of forming. Per NASDAQ's Composite Index, this 4th wave is part of 5 waves up from November 2012. Per other major indexes the 4th wave forming is part of 5 waves up from June 2012.

So, we're looking to early next year as being the earliest moment when the lug nuts will be at elevated risk of falling off the market, while there remains no doubt its wreck could be awful.

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