The Risk Averse Alert

Not a lot to report today ... other than the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note seriously wandering off the reservation, now yielding 2.15%. Whatever it takes to support the U.S. dollar? As long as hot money continues flowing into equities, which favored condition is indicated via the dollar's relative performance versus the S&P 500. Still, judging by the Volatility Index and the CBOE Put/Call Ratio, the presently quiescent state of capital flows to such desired ends as trapped central banks have been desperately promoting is at increasing risk of upset. Positive momentum—MACD—of each measure suggests this.

So, summarizing this short thought, "whatever it takes" to support a U.S. dollar otherwise being massively depreciated in a venture now putting upward pressure on interest rates is just begging a crisis whose result coaxes capital flows into dollar-denominated debt securities. Whatever affair is conjured, though, there certainly will be no questioning what came first, the chicken or the egg...



© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.

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