The hush so quiet that, we can hear a pin drop is the price of a weak, subverted Congress whose inaction in the cause of truly restoring confidence following 2008's collapse of Adam Smith's Leveraged Ponzi Scheme now puts in the cross hairs the Bank of Terror. The chairman of the board—our commander-in-chief—enjoys incredibly deep protection. Not so his string pullers.
The subtle, yet fairly stark degradation in the market's upside momentum (see bottom panel) puts us in front of an upcoming turn lower whose magnitude should dwarf that of April-May 2012.
The open question, though, is whether this present moment's subtle momentum degradation might continue for a time, coinciding with the further formation of a 4th wave of 5 waves up from mid-November 2012 bottom. We have reviewed evidence ($VIX) here raising this likelihood, so possibility the market remains levitated over coming weeks (near-term continuing April's wild swings as the 4th wave moves toward completion) is on the radar, as are prospective attacks targeting the busy [bankrupt] beavers of the Bank of Terror.
* * * * *© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.
Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.
Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.
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