Turn your attention to the period from February-October 2011. Wave a of (b) [of B] unfolded over this interim. Its component waves are labeled a, b and c.
The distance between $NYA's wave a low and wave b high is marked via a thin red line. As it turned out, wave c fell two widths of that measured distance below the wave a low.
Now consider the larger time frame wherein waves a and b [of (b) of B] unfolded, this from February 2011 to present. Check out the width between $NYA's wave a low (early-October 2011) and its yet to be reached (but likely imminent) wave b high. Now consider two of those widths lower as a prospective wave c of (b) [of B] target.
Could wave a of (b) prove but a foretaste of wave (b) in its entirety? Will wave (b) form an even larger "irregular flat" than formed wave a of (b)?
If it does, then March 2009 bottom will be toast sometime this year, probably late summer or early autumn. Thus, too, might the Elliott corrective wave forming since March '09 ultimately prove a "running correction." This would mean wave (c) of B sees $NYA recovering only to its March 2009 low, following completion of wave (b) of B later this year, targeting $NYA significantly lower than its March '09 bottom.
The Elliott Wave Principle's "alternation guideline" is on fine display throughout formation of wave B since March 2009. Having long been aware of the possibility that, rather than the first a-b-c up completing wave B, these first three waves up might form but wave (a) of B, it's fascinating to behold the makings of a 3-3-5 "[irregular] flat" forming wave (b) of B following on the 5-3-5 "zig-zag" forming wave (a) of B. Likewise do we see the alternation guideline similarly on display contrasting wave a of (b) forming a 3-3-5 "irregular flat" (February-October 2011) with wave b of (b) forming a 5-3-5 "zig-zag" (October 2011-present).
I certainly did not well fathom the duration of time that was likely to transpire extending formation of wave B subsequent to formation of wave A from October 2007 - March 2009. I probably will feel a lot less badly about this, though, should a steep setback obliterating March '09 bottom, indeed, occur over coming months. Let's just say the possibility is not a remote one, particularly with the specter of euro-zone bank runs made more formidable by the evident need to skim depositors for capital backing loans needed to stave off insolvency. Not a pretty picture, while who's in it probably stands to make Lehman Brothers look like a thumbnail print. This is circumstance making March '09 bottom appear a lot more vulnerable than most seem to appreciate at the moment.
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