Caution: Wet Paint ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Caution: Wet Paint

Is the paint dry yet, you wonder? Almost...

The tracking index of transmitters of the euro disease bears a striking resemblance to pain at the pump, this by the technical position both presently share in common. Yet whether the pump's pain intensifies or abates, very near exhausted appears capacity to pretend looming on the broker-dealer horizon is resurrection of a bygone day's status quo, much as we might suppose likewise is the case for the wide array of wildly mispriced garbage this group peddles across the globe.

We should add to yesterday's view humble recognition a 4th wave of 5 waves up from mid-November 2012 bottom still could be in the midst of forming, thus leaving some weeks yet to come before pain is broadly felt. We might find all technical measures eventually confirming underlying technical weakness developing in the evolution of 5 waves up from November 2012 (whereas right now many measures, but not all, already reveal this). Clarity should come during the market's pending pullback, once today's continuation of a slow creep higher reaches its conclusion sometime over hours ahead.

The key thing to watch will be major index peaks of February 28th. If the 4th wave of 5 waves up from mid-November 2012 in fact ended on Tuesday, February 26th, then the 1st wave of the 5th peaked on the 28th. Yet should this peak of February 28th be taken out—violated to the downside—then either the 4th wave of 5 waves up from November still is forming, or we might discover reason to suspect the 5th wave is taking the form of a "rising wedge" whose five component waves each subdivide in threes (and whose 1st wave unfolded off the February 26th low and is nearing its peak).

For the time being we appear condemned to watch paint dry, and this possibly no matter if the slow creep higher of recent days concludes in some few moments. Any decided turn lower upcoming might prove equally slow to develop before reaching its ultimate climax sometime during the next couple weeks.

Word on the Street
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