The Risk Averse Alert

 As you know, they don't ring a bell when it comes time for the feces to hit the fan. Yet I did say, "Show me the money!," didn't I. Too bad not even the darling of Wall Street was a facsimile beneficiary of the green likes on a day its price moved 3% higher...



Oh boy. Now there's a leader with a problem. Let's put it this way, since AAPL's September peak there has been an increasing interest trimming their stake, and now bottom fishers, momentarily profiting rather handsomely for but five days work, have much reason to suppose this stock's 200-day moving average probably will be as insurmountable as the so-called "fiscal cliff." Shrinking volume registered during the approach reveals a stock whose owners should be very concerned that, apparently no increase in new interest is materializing following darling AAPL's 28% haircut into this month's bottom. The last of these apparently were lured in the May-September period. Meanwhile, those who bought in earlier have got to be wondering whether wisdom advises waiting for the turn of the calendar before taking profits. Bad enough is the fact that, with each passing day CNBC's "Rise Above" is appearing as much a hopeless cause as the Fed (a matter of circumstance, by the way, I am yet more inclined to argue is intended), thus boding higher capital gains taxes in reward for risking the wait until January. AAPL's RSI reads "poised for a beating," while the stock's negative momentum brings the head to nod up and down in complete agreement.

To make matters worse are other leaders likewise in a very precarious spot. Take, for example, the index AAPL largely supports, and by so doing masks the fact that, the preponderance of its other components remain in a death spiral...



The picture above, no doubt worth a thousand words, is just as well summarized with one: NASDUNG. Appropriately, too, is this stock exchange's name all caps, as the technical trouble in which its Composite Index currently finds itself is just screaming, "Holy Shit!"

Yet not to be left out are this year's principal equity market recipients of dumb European money...



Likewise not a pretty picture painted by the largest of the large caps.

Throw in a Volatility Index looking a lot like July 2011, a NYSE McClellan Summation Index appearing well-poised for the market's imminent throttling, and a CBOE Put/Call Ratio likewise bearing extraordinary similarity to its mid-July 2011 state, this in a manner making it appear everyone is cocksure the market is going higher (either that or some smarty pants is hedging a substantial short position—more likely), and there is just one thing left to say...



How's that for a metaphoric video forecast! Ho, ho, ho. A slide into Christmas should leave but one thing to do for any sentient American whose self-respect and intelligence demands much more than capacity to mimic pathetic fascists flooding the mainstream media...



Art Cashin concluded a CNBC interview today with an interesting observation on this weekend's Catalonian election and the notable statement made in rejection of austerity—that sensitive "pre-condition" for receiving the Brussels Reichsbank's OMT. A forced trip over the "fiscal cliff" in all probability intends the same effect as Count Draghi-ula and his house of euro vampires have been venturing, albeit thus far in vain. Namely, a flood of central bank largess whose utter necessity stands to answer the question, "Will Weimar Hyperinflation Come to the U.S.?" As I said, CNBC's "Rise Above" appears intended to fail, this that thick cover for who is to blame for subsequent chaos be sweetened with a deluge from Capo Confetti making up for the fiscal cliff's consequent shrinkage of Treasury securities available to paper over the mess left by former Fed chairman, King Ponzi.

In conclusion we might start wondering if it is possible 2012 could prove an "outside year" (higher high, lower low and lower close), setting up for a horrendous 2013. Per the "lower low," all that has to happen is early-October 2011 bottom be taken out sometime between tomorrow and December 31st. Certainly by the technical look of things this is not an outside possibility. Rather it is squarely on the radar. All the more is its likelihood made real by the fact that, not a soul on the Fast Money desk today shows even an inkling of fear toward the prospect...



© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

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