Heads Up on a Higher Market ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Friday, October 05, 2012

Heads Up on a Higher Market

Let me clarify political remarks made here this week. Race riots? Yes. But not because Reb wins the presidency (that is should he be the victor). No. Rather because the imperial faction backing Obama probably will sooner play into the imperial faction backing Romney for the sake of moving the United States deeper into what already is glaringly evident: creeping fascism—carrying this trend forward into an even more formidable police state. All things considered, really, how does one not conclude a Mormon of such rank as Bishop Romney a perfect man for furthering this treason in a manner ever skillfully concealed (albeit with greater difficulty on a Ponzi scheme's downside to be sure)?

So, defeating Romney and impeaching Obama is political possibility suiting this citizen advocate whose support of the American System of Political Economy relegates both men unsuitable for the office of the U.S. presidency, so to summarize the matter.


We should not completely ignore all things pointing up here. There are plenty. The question becomes whether wave (c) of B [higher] began unfolding off early-October 2011 bottom (or possibly off early-June 2012 bottom, were wave (b) of B seen ending at that point instead). Again, this view fundamentally assumes a 5-3-5 "zig-zag" is forming off March '09 bottom, this being but one of several, wide open, Elliott wave based possibilities alive at the moment (these having inspired several alternate Elliott wave counts over recent weeks).

Here, then, a seemingly weaker momentum backdrop (see bottom panel) coinciding with QE3, versus that coinciding with QE2 (Nov. 2010), might prove to be in fact disguising market strength still in store. Here, too, the momentum burst of October 2011 might be seen fitting start to a third wave higher (i.e. wave (c) [of B]).

Today's surge out of the gate at least brought the Dow Jones Industrials to a new intra-day peak off its March '09 bottom. Other major indexes soon enough likely will follow, to be sure. In other words, then, the market's advance from early June does not appear to have completed yet. So, all the more reason to question whether wave (c) of B is in the midst of unfolding, with its third wave higher, indeed, approaching.

Already, both RSI (top panel) and MACD (bottom) reveal a stable and positive underlying technical strength. Both conditions certainly are fitting a third wave higher (i.e. wave (c) [of B]).

Then there's a CBOE Put/Call Ratio and Volatility Index right on the brink, near transitioning to a positive momentum, negative market trend. How many times before the same, only to reverse into a positive market trend over the past couple years?  Might these measures rather be well-poised at the brink of a third wave of a third wave higher (i.e. wave 3 of (c) [of B])?

Here we are, too, right at the S&P 500's long-term line of dynamic support-resistance, this having turned into resistance in '08, and now threatening to be turned back into support upon a third wave of a third wave higher imminently unfolding. All along this dynamic line of support-resistance, the S&P 500's fluctuations going back to the 1960s (and likely prior to this, too) have resulted in a third wave of a third wave being distinguished (this in both directions). It is curious to say the least, then, this dynamic line of support-resistance should enter into the picture at the very moment a third wave of a third wave higher might be on the verge of unfolding.

Considering the S&P 500's fluctuations forming an a-b-c "zig-zag" higher from 2002-2007, a "zig-zag" of one larger degree thought unfolding off March '09 bottom certainly finds wave "b" giveback culminating in weakness last August (2011) enough to raise prospect of an upcoming, S&P 500 advance carry the index to the vicinity of the lower trend line of the 5-wave channel containing the index's advance from 1974-2000. This would point the S&P 500 to the 2000 ballpark in its formation of wave (c) of B, and only then complete a 5-3-5 "zig-zag" up from March '09 bottom, this, itself, following a 3-3-5 "flat" forming from 2000-2009, and yet still seen a "corrective" move setting up a broad-based market decline sinking major indexes to levels last seen in the 1987-1994 period.

I just have to say the possibility the market might strongly advance to form wave 3 of (c) of B certainly finds a favorable technical backdrop here (this, of course, is appearing well within the realm of a technical backdrop likewise displaying indisputable weakness portending dead animal spirits and an advance [off March '09 bottom] doomed to fail). Now, one might cite a seemingly broken pricing mechanism whose effect brings stocks higher prices amidst shrinking demand, yet its success functioning as such to this point speaks poorly of possibility this goose machine imminently will fail. Rather possible, then, is its continued, suspect place, yet only the more confirming its being part of a larger, "corrective" move, completing an advance not likely to withstand the test of time, such as is seen the market's lift off March '09 bottom, with its ever-diminishing, accompanying volume.

Any upcoming, imminent advance should still find animal spirits quite dead. Yet, at this point too, some sign of recovery of these might make its most graphic presence during prospective unfolding of a third wave of a third wave higher, should this come to pass.

Again, this is just one possibility. Broadly speaking, though, the market continues holding up, and here, presently, even more so than seemed at all likely up to and through weakness culminating in May this year. Considering all things technical that are positively disposed on the back of the market's advance since early June, then, today's radically altered take on it at least deserves attention, as the market, indeed, could be poising for a strong move higher.

That said, weakness developing since the market's September peak could persist for some days and delay any prospective explosion higher. Assuming wave i of 3 of (c) of B formed (or is forming) off early-June 2012 bottom, weakness associated with wave ii of 3 will have to pass before wave iii of 3 launches higher.

Wish I could say I saw it coming. Well, ever the optimist, this just might turn out better late than never. Time will tell. Stay tuned.

Fast Money
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