With the market's momentum diving following a multi-month rocket ride on the thinnest upside volume yet since March '09 bottom (see $SPX) — this as underlying participation increasingly narrowed as the market's lift persisted throughout this year's first quarter (indeed, shockingly so, as evidence by the 10-day moving average of the NYSE advance-decline differential) — and with the NYSE Bullish Percent Index now ominously poised, a picture of complacency's last stand might be presented via the NYSE's 52-week high-low differential...
Over the course of euro-zone's slow-motion train wreck whenever this measure has fallen below its 200-day moving average pressure in the trans-Atlantic banking system was building. Spring 2010, summer 2011, and so it is once again...
So, per any imminent rush for the exits, index 200-day moving averages could be taken out rather more decidedly than most imagine. Contrarily, one last push higher is by no means out of the question. Yet accumulating, negative technical evidence rather appears lessening this possibility. A rush for the exits even more dizzying than last August's could be in store over days ahead.
* * * * *
© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.
Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.
Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.
There's an easy way to boost your investment discipline...Get Real-Time Trade Notification!
