Rumblings of a Train Wreck ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Rumblings of a Train Wreck

With the market's momentum diving following a multi-month rocket ride on the thinnest upside volume yet since March '09 bottom (see $SPX) — this as underlying participation increasingly narrowed as the market's lift persisted throughout this year's first quarter (indeed, shockingly so, as evidence by the 10-day moving average of the NYSE advance-decline differential) — and with the NYSE Bullish Percent Index now ominously poised, a picture of complacency's last stand might be presented via the NYSE's 52-week high-low differential...


Over the course of euro-zone's slow-motion train wreck whenever this measure has fallen below its 200-day moving average pressure in the trans-Atlantic banking system was building. Spring 2010, summer 2011, and so it is once again...

So, per any imminent rush for the exits, index 200-day moving averages could be taken out rather more decidedly than most imagine. Contrarily, one last push higher is by no means out of the question. Yet accumulating, negative technical evidence rather appears lessening this possibility. A rush for the exits even more dizzying than last August's could be in store over days ahead.

Fast Money
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