2012 High In? ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Friday, January 06, 2012

2012 High In?

The question is could major indexes like the Dow Industrials have printed the high for the year during the first hour of the first day of trading in 2012? Truth is this is entirely possible...


Adding to recent substantiation of an a-b-c-x-a-b-c "complex" Elliott corrective wave forming since August is the Fibonacci relationship indicated above. The breadth of the second a-b-c (since late-November) traveled .618 the breadth of the first a-b-c (mid-August to late-October), top to bottom. Not indicated is the fact that, in formation of the second a-b-c wave c traveled .618 the distance traveled by wave a.

Negative divergences revealed by relative strength (top panel) and momentum (bottom panel) further hint to the market's underlying weakness, as these conditions belie the Dow Jones Industrials current leadership off early-October bottom.

Whether wave (2) of C completed early on Tuesday, January 3rd is uncertain. Still possible in formation of a "complex" Elliott corrective wave developing since August is another "x" wave followed by a third a-b-c, much as I indicated the other day.

$INDU 15-min

The Dow's tentative turn lower since peaking early Tuesday seems to raise prospect that, wave (2) of C might continue forming over weeks ahead before reality sets in and chaos born of the trans-Atlantic financial system's insolvency wins the day.

Fast Money
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