Certain Smell of a Bull Trap ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Certain Smell of a Bull Trap

More technical evidence supporting prospect that, a fourth wave (of five waves up forming since late-June 2010 bottom) still could be unfolding, and portending a bout of pronounced weakness straight ahead...

NASDAQ McClellan

The McClellan Summation Index applied to the NASDAQ Composite has been dogging the same applied to the NYSE for as long as the market has been advancing off March '09 bottom.

Most simply and consistently this, of course, is yet another objective measure confirming animal spirits are not driving the market higher. Rather, consistent weakness, broadly speaking, all things NASDAQ, rightly produces the certain smell of a bull trap, again, putting it simply.

And now, more immediately, finding NASDAQ's McClellan Summation Index negative, following a string of bearish divergences to NASDAQ's peaks over the past few months ... it appears a fairly hard turn lower here might be baked into the cake ... notwithstanding further bouncing around, going nowhere, evolving over coming days.

Thus, might NASDAQ, too, soon complete a fourth wave of five waves up from late-June 2010 — five waves completing an a-b-c counter-trend, Elliott corrective wave up from March 2009 bottom — following which a terrible market collapse (quite likely the worst ever) seems predestined here at the junction of a technically well-justified case and a still bankrupt trans-Atlantic banking system.

Fast Money
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