Goose, Goose, Goose, Duck! ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Goose, Goose, Goose, Duck!

There might be no such thing as a sure thing, but if to every rule there is an exception, then resolution to an entirely unworkable debt arrangement throughout the trans-Atlantic sure appears imminent. Judging, too, by the recent rush for "things" (commodities) there appears no hyperinflationary scheme remaining able to delay much longer this resolution's appointed hour.

Too many years spent profitably scheming to maximize gains seems to have vacated from anyone's consideration a prospective, new dynamic now geared toward minimizing losses: an approach whose necessity a collapsing Ponzi scheme, indeed, would require. No one thinks to imagine how fear among strong hands might be driving capital to seek its relative preservation. Instead, some call increased demand for basic materials the result of a "global recovery."

Tell it to gold. Tell it to Greece, Ireland, Portugal. Tell it to most every U.S. state governor.

NYSE 5-min

Tell it to the sitting ducks who can scarcely absorb shares from a goose whose still bloated leverage must find it all the more desperate to raise capital given a persistently deteriorating foundation supporting its precarious position.

Such growing inability to mask the insolvency of the trans-Atlantic financial system as is being exposed in the EMU can only raise the intensity of this new, loss-mitigating dynamic mentioned above. Detractors to this view — fearless bulls spewing irrelevant empiricism backing their sophistry — hold sway only over what for many months now are proven rather stretched interests. This is reality ever-diminishing volume plainly has revealed over the past year-and-a-half.

Given the likelihood that, desperation and denial will persist to the bitter end, then for the sake of raising capital in a climate becoming more widely acknowledged as doomed, we might rather expect vacillations in the stock market's volatility to become more intense. Indeed, since February 18th top we have seen this come into play already. We should see a lot more of it over days and weeks ahead...

Fast Money
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