The Birds of Spring That Flew South ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Thursday, November 04, 2010

The Birds of Spring That Flew South

Evidently what I thought was a "rising wedge" forming in the fifth wave position of wave c up from late-August instead was a corrective wave. The question now is whether this corrective wave has formed in the second wave position of wave c or the fourth wave position...


Of course, given the underlying technical configuration accompanying the market's advance from late-August to date the assumption is that, the market's levitation occurring prior to today's breakout (i.e. over the past few weeks) has formed the forth wave of wave c (rather than a fifth wave "diagonal triangle" a.k.a. "rising wedge").

Wave c still is seen completing an a-b-c Elliott "corrective wave" up from late-June bottom, as it was prior to today's breakout.

Now, at a glance today's breakout might even appear significant and suggest wave 3 of c instead has begun to form (portending much more upside). However with technical conditions much the same as at April top, the view that wave 5 of c largely unfolded today is not unfounded.

Likewise, were wave 4 of c thought forming an Elliott corrective triangle over the past few weeks, today's strong lift is the typical aftermath according to the Elliott Wave Principle.

According to the same, too, there should be little follow-through.

Fast Money
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