The Vote on Imminent Collapse ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Sunday, July 25, 2010

The Vote on Imminent Collapse

Consider cyclical evidence suggesting either wave (b) of (2) or wave (3) of (C) is likely to unfold before election day...

OEX weekly

In every single mid-term election year over the past quarter century the market is seen putting in a bottom of some sort, and then lifting higher without fail.

So, in light of this the question is, can wave (3) of (C) — an historic collapse — be delayed any longer?

Certainly it could be. Nevertheless, delayed collapse or not, over the next 12-18 months an OEX objective in the vicinity of 100 lies squarely within the realm of credible possibility. Since this is my long-held, well-substantiated view ... and given cyclical evidence reflecting on the present mid-term election year, as well as the fact May 6th's flash crash still vividly reveals the market trades on the thinnest ice ... the possibility of imminent collapse well below March '09 lows should not be thought unlikely. Something finding the OEX approaching 200 prior to election day seems reasonable.

Bear in mind (no pun intended) that, unfolding since October 2007 is thought an Elliott corrective wave on the same level as that from 1929 - 1932.

(Here's where I part company from Prechter. He is of the mind believing the corrective wave begun in 2007 is one higher level in magnitude, and so likely to bring major indexes back to ranges in which these in the 1970s respectively traded. I on the other hand am more "optimistic." Levels last seen in the 1987-1994 period are thought the likely area where long-term support will be met.)

Likewise, although the currently unfolding corrective wave (since 2007) might reach its lowest over the next 12-18 months, there could be several more years following wherein the past decade's downward sloping tops might represent such resistance as extends this corrective wave for some more months and years thereafter. (Refer to Friday's 5-minute chart detailing [complex] wave 4 of (c) of (2) of (C) for a sense of this possibility.)

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