Well Oiled for a Smashing ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Friday, June 11, 2010

Well Oiled for a Smashing

One can imagine the sentiment a growing number of British commoners who find themselves in a similar embattled state as their American counterparts have toward their nation's business establishment as it shamelessly distracts attention away from the day's real news and important issues.

Consider the fact much media play is being given to a few vocal business leaders in Britain who find cause to belittle the U.S. President despite the administration's Justice Department recently dropping the criminal case against the financial system wrecking crew that a few years back was doing business out of the London office of AIG Financial Products. Much as their American counterparts generally think toward their nation's so-called leadership, the British commoner similarly must be wondering, "What are these establishment dopes thinking?!"

Truth is the real "special relationship" finds fertile ground among the larger mass of English-speaking people whose growing discontent stands to be transformed into America's finest export. As for that other thing called "special" ... that a reckless British imperial company has succeeded in compromising American interests like never before rather appears an inflammatory act consistent with a storied history whose resolution we all know the star spangled outcome.

Bear this history in mind when considering the growing Mass Strike whose disdain toward official Washington in its ceaseless accommodation of Wall Street and the City of London raises to a virtual certainty the likelihood of an historic bear market in stocks over coming weeks and months.


It's difficult to imagine much of any follow-through developing following this week's reversal. Notwithstanding both relative strength (RSI) and momentum (MACD) divergences registered on Monday — seemingly positive technical developments — that the market's turn higher found accompanying volume persistently diminishing right into today's close suggests this week's bounce is a fake possessing no meaningful bid behind it.

The larger consideration on both the RSI and MACD fronts is the fact these two measures remain on the sell-side of their respective ranges, indicating near-term weakness remains a clear risk. Indeed, a bloodbath whose possibility could just as well have developed at anytime this week looms as much a threat over days ahead.

One note of caution... Yesterday's CME-driven panic was accompanied by a pick-up in OEX put option open interest, indicating the panic-stricken hope to buy one week's time (going into options expiration on Friday, June 18th) to pray benevolent life on Mars willing to back lenders of last resort worldwide at last materializes.

SPX 5-min

It appears the resolve of those desperate for every minute possible to offload dead equity at levels nearer highs likely to be seen for years to come was tested at the open this morning. The answer given by 10:00 a.m. when yesterday's high was taken out worked to save the rest of the day for drawing in suckers. Today's final hour cemented this resolve, more or less confirming what had been established five hours earlier.

No matter what follow-through occurs at the start of Monday's trade, one would be remiss to think U.K.-domiciled firms that happen to be very substantial owners of U.S. debt, equity and real estate are about to sit back while their nation's premier imperial firm finds itself the target of ill sentiments threatening to create an unfavorable investment environment unlike anything seen during the post-WWII era. If there is anything to infer from what otherwise might be considered an irrational British establishment reaction to the fallout here in the U.S. from BP's negligence in the Gulf of Mexico, the will to put an exclamation point in dollars and cents highlighting displeasure with being called out seems a quite reasonable expectation.

Which likelihood begs the question... Was yesterday's drop in Goldman Sachs (while the broad market rocketed higher) meant to send this very message?

Fast Money
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