Keep Your Eye on the Ball ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Keep Your Eye on the Ball

Apparently, the "bit more consolidation" [of recent days' gains] thought possible yesterday was already accomplished before today's trading began. So, the final leg of what still remains an a-b-c corrective wave up from early-February bottom moved closer to completing today.

Coming up, er uh, down ... a return to respective 200-day moving averages. Following that, a slow grind higher, right back to present levels. This is the essence of an extended period topping.

Such a likelihood stands to reason it seems. So much has been done to create conditions affording opportunity for artificial life support's rationalization (albeit via much lying), such as, relatively speaking, makes equity attractive in a yield hungry world.

Yet were anything good and lasting to come of this we would see common stocks being accumulated. Instead, we are seeing the very opposite. Stocks are being distributed. The evidence is plain. Every piece, taken together, presents distribution's dynamic.

This case more or less has been made here for months on end now. The song remains the same, still. That top to the rally off March '09 bottom is yet again defied is no basis for altering my outlook, particularly when the underlying dynamic remains entirely unchanged.

In fact, if you really think about it, a prolonged distribution lends considerable weight to the view that, stocks have a long way down yet to go.


Now you can be sure the only thing "magical" circling around U.S. stocks is credulity. Here we are going on six months with still fewer listed issues bullishly configured contributing to the market's general buoyancy ... and yet given where we've been over the past few years — let alone where we've come from in just one — some greater measure of fear (leading to a pickup in selling) still is nowhere to be found?

Among the majority there remains far greater complacency lending reason to hold, rather than sell. This, alone, the new trip to post-March '09 high ground yet again readily reveals.

So, quite evidently, groundwork laid by some far stronger minority has produced its bounty of fruit but begging harvest. Mission accomplished. Yet, too, among these strong hands real power lives, but begging some new swindle affecting realignment. That's the ball to watch.

Fast Money
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© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.

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