Setting Up Disappointment ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Setting Up Disappointment

Word on the Street has it the next couple weeks could be a period in which downside pressure is forestalled. In fact, consensus suddenly is calling for clear sailing! This after January's negative technical performance, followed by further weakness during February's first week? Well, call me dubious.

Spoken or not, this momentary change in sentiment certainly was anticipated. Yet whether it might be fortified over the next week remains in doubt.

To wit, the sort of technical reset one might expect following the past month's weakness was greatly served today ... and on volume that was the same shade of, shall we say, restrained, much as has been the case on advancing days all year.

So, with technical balance among interests now reasonably restored on a day the lottery's most vexing competitor — NASDAQ — led the way higher (because, lord knows, now that 95,000 new jobs per month are assured by the current standard-bearer of failed presidential leadership, there will be all kinds of added income to throw at every new electronic distraction under the sun), conditions, technically speaking, suddenly are ripe for a fine harvest of disappointment.

Indeed, if this week should finish on its lows, well, I for one will not be the least bit surprised. Not given the way the year has progressed thus far, and likewise, not given the present, negative outlook.

Fast Money
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