Casino Turned Dairy Farm ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Friday, September 11, 2009

Casino Turned Dairy Farm

Here is a picture tying together every little piece of this or that — both big and small — over the past I don't know how many weeks...


The big picture is unchanged. Calamity awaits the end of wave C.

The near picture, too, gains focus. There's no denying there are witting suckers abounding, hankering to chase dead equity. And they will get their fill. There's time still. Or so it appears anyway.

A solid RSI and MACD case supports the above Elliott Wave count showing how $NYA's advance off March '09 bottom is yet to complete.

Likewise, with both RSI and MACD presently diverging from $NYA (relative to early-August) ... and volume conspicuously unimpressive ... the near-term outlook appears solid as well. So, coming right up could be selling that, last week, I thought might develop this week.

As pending weakness unfolds I would expect both RSI and MACD to dip below respective, early-July lows. This would add but more fuel to the fire confirming that, resumption of last year's negative trend is drawing near. Once wave C — the advance off March bottom — completes at some indeterminate moment many weeks from now, then the fireworks should begin.

I see exactly how I should play this, given my current position. I could make out just fine, I believe. Even better if the projected decline pending (shown above) has been under-estimated. NYA's 200-day moving average might be the more likely objective upcoming. (Yet one cannot throw out the possibility that, getting there might take more time than the picture above suggests.)

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